For me personally, self quarantine seems pretty unnecessary at this point, but I would act differently if I were in a different age group. Given the below death rates I would self quarantine if I were over 40. I would like to note I expect these death rates to be somewhat high because they are largely based on confirmed cases, which I expect to be disproportionately the worse cases that ended up in hospitals.
There was one case of Covid-19 in Solano county (CA) that couldn’t be traced directly to travelers, which indicates community spread may be happening and Covid-19 may be spreading in the bay area.
Note that while your personal survival is quite important, getting infected and surviving can have quite awful effects. We don’t know what the long-term effects are like yet (because we haven’t hit the long-term yet), but I won’t be surprised if post-viral fatigue is common.
Being ill is also unpleasant, and you become a risk to your community, and especially any elderly people in your community.
Yeah, It’s true we don’t know the long term effects yet and being ill is unpleasant. I’m taking the minor precautions of not going to large public spaces (BART, Grocery Stores, Gyms) for a while.
These numbers are applicable when there are hospital beds and equipment and staff to treat the 20%ish of severe cases. When the hospitals get overwhelmed, the fatality rates will go up. By how much? I have a guess broken down by age here.
Great table to offer. Might be good to also update on some related state. Males seem twice as likely as females to contract the infection (not positive here if that also scales with age or not)
Also, those with preexisting condition (heart, lung, other immune system taxing states) are also more likely to suffer more, and be among those dying than those who are generally healthy.
I think there was also a suspected link between smoking and higher risk if exposed to COVID-19. That is probably too correlated with the other preexisting health conditions that might be too difficult to say much.
Regarding smoking, it of course damages your lungs making you more vulnerable to lung problems, but there is new evidence that it may increase the expression of the protein the virus uses to gain access to your cells, making you more easily infected.
Consider that by quarantining yourself you’re also protecting others from being infected (directly and indirectly) by you, some of whom may be in much higher risk categories. Given that we’re still in the early stages of exponential growth, this seems quite significant.
Noting I am living in a group house and we are now being fairly strict in limiting outside social contact, using stored food or sterilization procedures for when we order things, and are putting more thought into our procedures going forward.
For me personally, self quarantine seems pretty unnecessary at this point, but I would act differently if I were in a different age group. Given the below death rates I would self quarantine if I were over 40. I would like to note I expect these death rates to be somewhat high because they are largely based on confirmed cases, which I expect to be disproportionately the worse cases that ended up in hospitals.
There was one case of Covid-19 in Solano county (CA) that couldn’t be traced directly to travelers, which indicates community spread may be happening and Covid-19 may be spreading in the bay area.
Note that while your personal survival is quite important, getting infected and surviving can have quite awful effects. We don’t know what the long-term effects are like yet (because we haven’t hit the long-term yet), but I won’t be surprised if post-viral fatigue is common.
Being ill is also unpleasant, and you become a risk to your community, and especially any elderly people in your community.
At least there is some evidence that the lung fibrosis that you were seeing in a lot of SARS survivors is not happening at nearly the same level.
Yeah, It’s true we don’t know the long term effects yet and being ill is unpleasant. I’m taking the minor precautions of not going to large public spaces (BART, Grocery Stores, Gyms) for a while.
These numbers are applicable when there are hospital beds and equipment and staff to treat the 20%ish of severe cases. When the hospitals get overwhelmed, the fatality rates will go up. By how much? I have a guess broken down by age here.
Sources Death Rates https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/?fbclid=IwAR3pUihF3LkUPfXJgJF_DR98NpOfPoma0rVCqkKuR7olmlZFkQm8aprVzec
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2?fbclid=IwAR0DAGV5XiOGnGEF-D6jZiU6KpsAO7URKTYcIB1vkv2OYKUlZZciTp7PGOg
Solano County Case https://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/newly-diagnosed-coronavirus-patient-being-treated-at-uc-davis-medical-center/
Note that there has been a second confirmed case of community transmission in the Bay Area. WaPo link
Great table to offer. Might be good to also update on some related state. Males seem twice as likely as females to contract the infection (not positive here if that also scales with age or not)
Also, those with preexisting condition (heart, lung, other immune system taxing states) are also more likely to suffer more, and be among those dying than those who are generally healthy.
I think there was also a suspected link between smoking and higher risk if exposed to COVID-19. That is probably too correlated with the other preexisting health conditions that might be too difficult to say much.
Regarding smoking, it of course damages your lungs making you more vulnerable to lung problems, but there is new evidence that it may increase the expression of the protein the virus uses to gain access to your cells, making you more easily infected.
I might then make the guess that vaping might also fit that profile.
Should I be worried if I quit something like 30 years back? (mostly joking but might be interesting to know if there are data on that)
Note: I gave Finan a table using the new in-beta editor. Users in general still do not have editors available at the minute.
Consider that by quarantining yourself you’re also protecting others from being infected (directly and indirectly) by you, some of whom may be in much higher risk categories. Given that we’re still in the early stages of exponential growth, this seems quite significant.
Noting I am living in a group house and we are now being fairly strict in limiting outside social contact, using stored food or sterilization procedures for when we order things, and are putting more thought into our procedures going forward.
Thanks for the useful data and advice for younger people! Please remove the long laundry list of recommendations at the end :)
Edit: Thank you. I will now fix your table.