The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time.
Example: you have two books to choose from (assuming both seem equally interesting), and you don’t know much information about them except how long they’ve been in print. The first one came out this year, and the other one has been in print for 40 years.
Using Lindy you can expect the first book’s sales to drop either this year or the next one, and you can expect the latter to stay in print for about 40 more years. in other words, the older book is likely to be more relevant, and so that’s the one you’ll choose.
I suggest Nassim Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ if you wish to read more about it.
The Lindy Effect gives no insight about which of the two books will be more “relevant“. For example, you could be comparing two political biographies, one on Donald Trump and the other on Jimmy Carter. They might both look equally interesting, but the Trump biography will make you look better informed about current affairs.
Choosing the timely rather than the timeless book is a valid rule. There‘ll always be time for the timeless literature later but the timely literature gives you the most bang for your buck if you read it now.
The Lindy Effect only tells you which of the two books is more likely to remain in print for another 40 years. It doesn’t even give you insight on how many total copies will be sold of each book. Maybe one will sell a million copies this year, 1,000 the next, and be out of print in two years. The other will sell a steady 10,000 copies per year for 40 years. The first one still will outsell it over that period of time.
What I find frustrating about the Lindy Effect, and other low-info priors like Chesterton’s Fence, is the way they get spun into heuristics for conservatism by conflating the precise claim they make with other claims that feel related but really aren’t.
The Lindy effect (or Lindy’s Law).
Example: you have two books to choose from (assuming both seem equally interesting), and you don’t know much information about them except how long they’ve been in print. The first one came out this year, and the other one has been in print for 40 years.
Using Lindy you can expect the first book’s sales to drop either this year or the next one, and you can expect the latter to stay in print for about 40 more years. in other words, the older book is likely to be more relevant, and so that’s the one you’ll choose.
I suggest Nassim Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ if you wish to read more about it.
The Lindy Effect gives no insight about which of the two books will be more “relevant“. For example, you could be comparing two political biographies, one on Donald Trump and the other on Jimmy Carter. They might both look equally interesting, but the Trump biography will make you look better informed about current affairs.
Choosing the timely rather than the timeless book is a valid rule. There‘ll always be time for the timeless literature later but the timely literature gives you the most bang for your buck if you read it now.
The Lindy Effect only tells you which of the two books is more likely to remain in print for another 40 years. It doesn’t even give you insight on how many total copies will be sold of each book. Maybe one will sell a million copies this year, 1,000 the next, and be out of print in two years. The other will sell a steady 10,000 copies per year for 40 years. The first one still will outsell it over that period of time.
What I find frustrating about the Lindy Effect, and other low-info priors like Chesterton’s Fence, is the way they get spun into heuristics for conservatism by conflating the precise claim they make with other claims that feel related but really aren’t.
That’s not true, because one’s lifespan is limited. If you’re constantly focusing on the timely, you in fact will not have time for the timeless.