The Lindy Effect gives no insight about which of the two books will be more “relevant“. For example, you could be comparing two political biographies, one on Donald Trump and the other on Jimmy Carter. They might both look equally interesting, but the Trump biography will make you look better informed about current affairs.
Choosing the timely rather than the timeless book is a valid rule. There‘ll always be time for the timeless literature later but the timely literature gives you the most bang for your buck if you read it now.
The Lindy Effect only tells you which of the two books is more likely to remain in print for another 40 years. It doesn’t even give you insight on how many total copies will be sold of each book. Maybe one will sell a million copies this year, 1,000 the next, and be out of print in two years. The other will sell a steady 10,000 copies per year for 40 years. The first one still will outsell it over that period of time.
What I find frustrating about the Lindy Effect, and other low-info priors like Chesterton’s Fence, is the way they get spun into heuristics for conservatism by conflating the precise claim they make with other claims that feel related but really aren’t.
The Lindy Effect gives no insight about which of the two books will be more “relevant“. For example, you could be comparing two political biographies, one on Donald Trump and the other on Jimmy Carter. They might both look equally interesting, but the Trump biography will make you look better informed about current affairs.
Choosing the timely rather than the timeless book is a valid rule. There‘ll always be time for the timeless literature later but the timely literature gives you the most bang for your buck if you read it now.
The Lindy Effect only tells you which of the two books is more likely to remain in print for another 40 years. It doesn’t even give you insight on how many total copies will be sold of each book. Maybe one will sell a million copies this year, 1,000 the next, and be out of print in two years. The other will sell a steady 10,000 copies per year for 40 years. The first one still will outsell it over that period of time.
What I find frustrating about the Lindy Effect, and other low-info priors like Chesterton’s Fence, is the way they get spun into heuristics for conservatism by conflating the precise claim they make with other claims that feel related but really aren’t.
That’s not true, because one’s lifespan is limited. If you’re constantly focusing on the timely, you in fact will not have time for the timeless.