Seems like this question relies on a huge number of technical questions and assumptions such that a back of the envelope estimate would be meaningless and a rigorous examination would be highly difficult, nigh impossible. Natural albedo fluctuates wildly on a global scale from year to year and there are so many confounding factors and feedback systems in global climate that it seems insane to even estimate how much artificial mirror surface is needed, let alone how much it would cost not just to launch all that material, but to coordinate orbital patterns and control systems for it.
I think it’s useful to distinguish knowledge of truth from gears-level understanding, these two different things can occur in any combination. Your point is that attaining specific understanding of a plan that’s good enough to make the estimate in question is a hopeless endeavor, and you list particular issues with getting such a plan fleshed out.
But it’s also possible to know truths about the world without understanding why they are true or how they came to be known (originally). The main example of this is seeking expert consensus in an area you don’t understand: by finding out what the consensus is, you get a reasonable credence in what the truth of the matter is, without necessarily understanding why it’s this way, or how specifically anyone came to know it’s this way.
This post asks for a Fermi estimate, which is another way in which a very vague model can yield truths about the world. Even if a detailed model is unattainable, such truths might be in reach.
(It’s often a lost purpose to seek truths about the world instead of seeking understanding, so it’s natural to scorn some forms of pursuit of truths. I have a lot of sympathy for this position. That doesn’t make such forms of pursuit of truths unworkable, just not relevant to improving understanding of what’s going on.)
Seems like this question relies on a huge number of technical questions and assumptions such that a back of the envelope estimate would be meaningless and a rigorous examination would be highly difficult, nigh impossible. Natural albedo fluctuates wildly on a global scale from year to year and there are so many confounding factors and feedback systems in global climate that it seems insane to even estimate how much artificial mirror surface is needed, let alone how much it would cost not just to launch all that material, but to coordinate orbital patterns and control systems for it.
I think it’s useful to distinguish knowledge of truth from gears-level understanding, these two different things can occur in any combination. Your point is that attaining specific understanding of a plan that’s good enough to make the estimate in question is a hopeless endeavor, and you list particular issues with getting such a plan fleshed out.
But it’s also possible to know truths about the world without understanding why they are true or how they came to be known (originally). The main example of this is seeking expert consensus in an area you don’t understand: by finding out what the consensus is, you get a reasonable credence in what the truth of the matter is, without necessarily understanding why it’s this way, or how specifically anyone came to know it’s this way.
This post asks for a Fermi estimate, which is another way in which a very vague model can yield truths about the world. Even if a detailed model is unattainable, such truths might be in reach.
(It’s often a lost purpose to seek truths about the world instead of seeking understanding, so it’s natural to scorn some forms of pursuit of truths. I have a lot of sympathy for this position. That doesn’t make such forms of pursuit of truths unworkable, just not relevant to improving understanding of what’s going on.)