The answer is (1), of course, but I feel like this question is stacking the deck somewhat. It’s always important to consider how strong each piece of evidence is and what all the tradeoffs are. Being religious isn’t what I’d consider a good sign, but the population contains lots of people who have compartmentalized religious beliefs simply because they were rised that way, so while it’s evidence for lower rationality, it’s only weak evidence. And that compartmentalization means it’s very unlikely to come up in a business management context. Creationism, on the other hand, if it’s believed strongly enough to hear about, is much stronger evidence—creationism is a weaker meme, more easily tested and less widely accepted, so it says more about the person who holds that belief; it’s harder to compartmentalize, and seems to strongly predict disagreement with scientific conclusions in general.
Meanwhile, an “average Less Wrong member” is almost certainly weak on the necessary leadership and organization skills. In order to make that distinction, you do have to subdivide “intelligence” into pieces and decide which ones are important—but I never suggested (or at least, didn’t mean to suggest—I never addressed it explicitly) that intelligence narrowly focused on irrelevant skills would count as a qualification.
The answer is (1), of course, but I feel like this question is stacking the deck somewhat. It’s always important to consider how strong each piece of evidence is and what all the tradeoffs are. Being religious isn’t what I’d consider a good sign, but the population contains lots of people who have compartmentalized religious beliefs simply because they were rised that way, so while it’s evidence for lower rationality, it’s only weak evidence. And that compartmentalization means it’s very unlikely to come up in a business management context. Creationism, on the other hand, if it’s believed strongly enough to hear about, is much stronger evidence—creationism is a weaker meme, more easily tested and less widely accepted, so it says more about the person who holds that belief; it’s harder to compartmentalize, and seems to strongly predict disagreement with scientific conclusions in general.
Meanwhile, an “average Less Wrong member” is almost certainly weak on the necessary leadership and organization skills. In order to make that distinction, you do have to subdivide “intelligence” into pieces and decide which ones are important—but I never suggested (or at least, didn’t mean to suggest—I never addressed it explicitly) that intelligence narrowly focused on irrelevant skills would count as a qualification.