For example, it would be wrong to vote for a politician who was a creationist, regardless of their other qualifications, because there aren’t any smart and sane creationists.
I have a question for you and all the other people who agree with this statement. Let’s say you’re looking for someone to fill a very demanding leadership position in a business. Whom would you rather appoint:
A Mormon who professes belief in the literal truth of both the Bible and the Book of Mormon, and thus fails the above test of smarts and sanity, but whose resume features an impressive track record of relevant professional accomplishments, and who is known for an extraordinary ability for getting things done and completing projects that seem impossibly difficult. (You will find a significant number of people that fit this description in real life.)
An average Less Wrong member. (Who will presumably pass all these little litmus tests of “rationality” with flying colors.)
If the answer is (1), do you believe that the same conclusion cannot be extended to at least some political leadership positions? If not, why exactly?
(I also second Relsqui’s earlier comment on this issue.)
Upvoted (it’s a valid point), but remember that politicians aren’t selected for such a specific job and their abilties are not so easily compartmentalised. Although I answer (1) to your question, if I were looking for a president, I would prefer the average LW reader.
The answer is (1), of course, but I feel like this question is stacking the deck somewhat. It’s always important to consider how strong each piece of evidence is and what all the tradeoffs are. Being religious isn’t what I’d consider a good sign, but the population contains lots of people who have compartmentalized religious beliefs simply because they were rised that way, so while it’s evidence for lower rationality, it’s only weak evidence. And that compartmentalization means it’s very unlikely to come up in a business management context. Creationism, on the other hand, if it’s believed strongly enough to hear about, is much stronger evidence—creationism is a weaker meme, more easily tested and less widely accepted, so it says more about the person who holds that belief; it’s harder to compartmentalize, and seems to strongly predict disagreement with scientific conclusions in general.
Meanwhile, an “average Less Wrong member” is almost certainly weak on the necessary leadership and organization skills. In order to make that distinction, you do have to subdivide “intelligence” into pieces and decide which ones are important—but I never suggested (or at least, didn’t mean to suggest—I never addressed it explicitly) that intelligence narrowly focused on irrelevant skills would count as a qualification.
jimrandomh:
I have a question for you and all the other people who agree with this statement. Let’s say you’re looking for someone to fill a very demanding leadership position in a business. Whom would you rather appoint:
A Mormon who professes belief in the literal truth of both the Bible and the Book of Mormon, and thus fails the above test of smarts and sanity, but whose resume features an impressive track record of relevant professional accomplishments, and who is known for an extraordinary ability for getting things done and completing projects that seem impossibly difficult. (You will find a significant number of people that fit this description in real life.)
An average Less Wrong member. (Who will presumably pass all these little litmus tests of “rationality” with flying colors.)
If the answer is (1), do you believe that the same conclusion cannot be extended to at least some political leadership positions? If not, why exactly?
(I also second Relsqui’s earlier comment on this issue.)
Upvoted (it’s a valid point), but remember that politicians aren’t selected for such a specific job and their abilties are not so easily compartmentalised. Although I answer (1) to your question, if I were looking for a president, I would prefer the average LW reader.
The answer is (1), of course, but I feel like this question is stacking the deck somewhat. It’s always important to consider how strong each piece of evidence is and what all the tradeoffs are. Being religious isn’t what I’d consider a good sign, but the population contains lots of people who have compartmentalized religious beliefs simply because they were rised that way, so while it’s evidence for lower rationality, it’s only weak evidence. And that compartmentalization means it’s very unlikely to come up in a business management context. Creationism, on the other hand, if it’s believed strongly enough to hear about, is much stronger evidence—creationism is a weaker meme, more easily tested and less widely accepted, so it says more about the person who holds that belief; it’s harder to compartmentalize, and seems to strongly predict disagreement with scientific conclusions in general.
Meanwhile, an “average Less Wrong member” is almost certainly weak on the necessary leadership and organization skills. In order to make that distinction, you do have to subdivide “intelligence” into pieces and decide which ones are important—but I never suggested (or at least, didn’t mean to suggest—I never addressed it explicitly) that intelligence narrowly focused on irrelevant skills would count as a qualification.