Ah. Well, it sounds like you were thinking that in the scenario I outlined, the previous largest system, 10x smaller, wasn’t making much money? I didn’t mean to indicate that; feel free to suppose that this predecessor system also clearly has massive economic implications, significantly less massive than the new one though…
I wasn’t arguing that we’d do 500,000x in one go. (Though it’s entirely possible that we’d do 100x in one go—we almost did, with GPT-3)
Am I right in thinking that your general policy is something like “Progress will be continuous; therefore we’ll get warning shots; therefore if MIRI argues that a certain alignment problem may be present in a particular AI system, but thus far there hasn’t been a warning shot for that problem, then MIRI is wrong.”
Well, it sounds like you were thinking that in the scenario I outlined, the previous largest system, 10x smaller, wasn’t making much money?
No, I wasn’t assuming that? I’m not sure why you think I was.
Tbc, given that you aren’t arguing that we’d do 500,000x in one go, the second paragraph of my previous comment is moot.
Progress will be continuous; therefore we’ll get warning shots; therefore if MIRI argues that a certain alignment problem may be present in a particular AI system, but thus far there hasn’t been a warning shot for that problem, then MIRI is wrong.
Yes, as a prior. Obviously you’d want to look at the actual arguments they give and take that into account as well.
Ah. Well, it sounds like you were thinking that in the scenario I outlined, the previous largest system, 10x smaller, wasn’t making much money? I didn’t mean to indicate that; feel free to suppose that this predecessor system also clearly has massive economic implications, significantly less massive than the new one though…
I wasn’t arguing that we’d do 500,000x in one go. (Though it’s entirely possible that we’d do 100x in one go—we almost did, with GPT-3)
Am I right in thinking that your general policy is something like “Progress will be continuous; therefore we’ll get warning shots; therefore if MIRI argues that a certain alignment problem may be present in a particular AI system, but thus far there hasn’t been a warning shot for that problem, then MIRI is wrong.”
No, I wasn’t assuming that? I’m not sure why you think I was.
Tbc, given that you aren’t arguing that we’d do 500,000x in one go, the second paragraph of my previous comment is moot.
Yes, as a prior. Obviously you’d want to look at the actual arguments they give and take that into account as well.
OK. I can explain why I thought you thought that if you like, but I suspect it’s not important to either of us.
I think I have enough understanding of your view now that I can collect my thoughts and decide what I disagree with and why.