That sounds like a different process than simulacra levels. If you want to convince me of your position, you should read into the simulacra levels theory, and find instances where level changes in the real world happen surprisingly faster than what the theory would predict, or with evidence of malice on the part of orgs. Because from my perspective all the evidence you’ve presented so far is consistent with the prevalence of simulacra collapse being correlated with the current simulacra level in an institution, or memes with high replication rate being spread further than those with low replication rate. No postulation of surprisingly competent organizations.
Ex. If plumbers weren’t operating at simulacra level 1, their clients will become upset with them on the order of days, and no longer buy their services. But if governments don’t operate at simulacra level 1 wrt pandemic preparedness, voters will become upset with them on the order of decades, then vote people out of office. Since the government simulacra collapse time is far longer than the plumber simulacra collapse time, (ignoring effects like ‘perhaps simulacra levels increase faster on the government scale, or decrease faster on the plumbing industry scale during a collapse’) governments can reach far greater simulacra levels than the plumbing industry. Similar effects can be seen in social change.
I would try to find this evidence myself, but it seems we very likely live in a world with surprisingly incompetent organizations, so this doesn’t seem likely enough for me to expend much willpower looking into it (though I may if I get in the mood).
Your strength as a rationalist is the degree to which it takes “very strong and persuasive argumentation” to convince you of false things, and “weak, unpersuasive-sounding argumentation” to convince you of true things; ideally, in the latter case, the empty string should suffice.
…which means that strong rationalist communication is healthiest and most efficient when practically empty of arguments.
I downvoted this comment. First of all, you are responding to a non-central point I made. My biggest argument was that your theory has no evidence supporting it which isn’t explained by far simpler hypotheses, and requires some claims (institutions are ultra competent) which seem very unlikely. This should cause you to be just as skeptical of your hypothesis as me. Second, “the most healthy & efficient communication ⇒ practically empty of arguments” does not mean “practically empty of arguments ⇒ the most healthy & efficient communication”, or even “practically empty of arguments ⇒ a healthy & efficient communication”. In fact, usually if there are no arguments, there is not communication happening.
In this sort of situation I think it’s important to sharply distinguish argument from evidence. If you can think of a clever argument that would change your mind then you might as well update right away, but if you can think of evidence that would change your mind then you should only update insofar as you expect to see that evidence later, and definitely less than you would if someone actually showed it to you. Eliezer is not precise about this in the linked thread: Engines of Creation contains lots of material other than clever arguments!
A request for arguments in this sense is just confused, and I too would hope not to see it in rationalist communication. But requests for evidence should always be honored, even though they often can’t be answered.
That sounds like a different process than simulacra levels. If you want to convince me of your position, you should read into the simulacra levels theory, and find instances where level changes in the real world happen surprisingly faster than what the theory would predict, or with evidence of malice on the part of orgs. Because from my perspective all the evidence you’ve presented so far is consistent with the prevalence of simulacra collapse being correlated with the current simulacra level in an institution, or memes with high replication rate being spread further than those with low replication rate. No postulation of surprisingly competent organizations.
Ex. If plumbers weren’t operating at simulacra level 1, their clients will become upset with them on the order of days, and no longer buy their services. But if governments don’t operate at simulacra level 1 wrt pandemic preparedness, voters will become upset with them on the order of decades, then vote people out of office. Since the government simulacra collapse time is far longer than the plumber simulacra collapse time, (ignoring effects like ‘perhaps simulacra levels increase faster on the government scale, or decrease faster on the plumbing industry scale during a collapse’) governments can reach far greater simulacra levels than the plumbing industry. Similar effects can be seen in social change.
I would try to find this evidence myself, but it seems we very likely live in a world with surprisingly incompetent organizations, so this doesn’t seem likely enough for me to expend much willpower looking into it (though I may if I get in the mood).
Nope. Not interested in convincing anyone of anything.
I support Eliezer’s sentiment here:
…which means that strong rationalist communication is healthiest and most efficient when practically empty of arguments.
I downvoted this comment. First of all, you are responding to a non-central point I made. My biggest argument was that your theory has no evidence supporting it which isn’t explained by far simpler hypotheses, and requires some claims (institutions are ultra competent) which seem very unlikely. This should cause you to be just as skeptical of your hypothesis as me. Second, “the most healthy & efficient communication ⇒ practically empty of arguments” does not mean “practically empty of arguments ⇒ the most healthy & efficient communication”, or even “practically empty of arguments ⇒ a healthy & efficient communication”. In fact, usually if there are no arguments, there is not communication happening.
In this sort of situation I think it’s important to sharply distinguish argument from evidence. If you can think of a clever argument that would change your mind then you might as well update right away, but if you can think of evidence that would change your mind then you should only update insofar as you expect to see that evidence later, and definitely less than you would if someone actually showed it to you. Eliezer is not precise about this in the linked thread: Engines of Creation contains lots of material other than clever arguments!
A request for arguments in this sense is just confused, and I too would hope not to see it in rationalist communication. But requests for evidence should always be honored, even though they often can’t be answered.