Rt can go below one in Zvi’s model. It just takes an even higher rate of new infections.
Here’s the same picture, with the horizontal axis extended so this is visible: https://64.media.tumblr.com/008005269202c21313ef5d5db6a8a4c6/83a097f275903c4c-81/s2048x3072/7b2e6e27f1fb7ad57ac0dcc6bd61fce77a18a2c1.png
Of course, in the real world, Rt dips below one all the time, as you can see in the colored points.
As a dramatic example, Zvi’s model is predicting the future forward from 12/23/20. But a mere week before that date, Rt was below one!
Rt can go below one in Zvi’s model. It just takes an even higher rate of new infections.
Here’s the same picture, with the horizontal axis extended so this is visible: https://64.media.tumblr.com/008005269202c21313ef5d5db6a8a4c6/83a097f275903c4c-81/s2048x3072/7b2e6e27f1fb7ad57ac0dcc6bd61fce77a18a2c1.png
Of course, in the real world, Rt dips below one all the time, as you can see in the colored points.
As a dramatic example, Zvi’s model is predicting the future forward from 12/23/20. But a mere week before that date, Rt was below one!