The problem is that an AI which passes the unrestricted Turing test must be strictly superior to a human; it would still have all the expected AI abilities like high-speed calculation and so on. A human who was augmented to the point of passing the Pocket Calculator Equivalence Test would be superhumanly fast and accurate at arithmetic on top of still having all the classical human abilities, they wouldn’t be just as smart as a pocket calculator.
High speed calculation plus human-level intelligence is not sufficient for recursive self-improvement. An AI needs to be able to understand its own source code, and that is not a guarantee that passing the Turing test (plus high-speed calculation) includes.
If I am confident that a human is capable of building human-level intelligence, my confidence that a human-level intelligence cannot build a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence, given sufficient trials, becomes pretty low. Ditto my confidence that a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence cannot build a slightly-smarter-than-that intelligence, and so forth.
But, sure, it’s far from zero. As you say, it’s not a guarantee.
A human who was augmented to the point of passing the Pocket Calculator Equivalence Test
I thought a Human with a Pocket Calculator is this augmented human already. Unless you want to implant the calculator in your skull and control it with your thoughts. Which will also soon be possible.
The problem is that an AI which passes the unrestricted Turing test must be strictly superior to a human; it would still have all the expected AI abilities like high-speed calculation and so on. A human who was augmented to the point of passing the Pocket Calculator Equivalence Test would be superhumanly fast and accurate at arithmetic on top of still having all the classical human abilities, they wouldn’t be just as smart as a pocket calculator.
High speed calculation plus human-level intelligence is not sufficient for recursive self-improvement. An AI needs to be able to understand its own source code, and that is not a guarantee that passing the Turing test (plus high-speed calculation) includes.
If I am confident that a human is capable of building human-level intelligence, my confidence that a human-level intelligence cannot build a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence, given sufficient trials, becomes pretty low. Ditto my confidence that a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence cannot build a slightly-smarter-than-that intelligence, and so forth.
But, sure, it’s far from zero. As you say, it’s not a guarantee.
I thought a Human with a Pocket Calculator is this augmented human already. Unless you want to implant the calculator in your skull and control it with your thoughts. Which will also soon be possible.