High speed calculation plus human-level intelligence is not sufficient for recursive self-improvement. An AI needs to be able to understand its own source code, and that is not a guarantee that passing the Turing test (plus high-speed calculation) includes.
If I am confident that a human is capable of building human-level intelligence, my confidence that a human-level intelligence cannot build a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence, given sufficient trials, becomes pretty low. Ditto my confidence that a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence cannot build a slightly-smarter-than-that intelligence, and so forth.
But, sure, it’s far from zero. As you say, it’s not a guarantee.
High speed calculation plus human-level intelligence is not sufficient for recursive self-improvement. An AI needs to be able to understand its own source code, and that is not a guarantee that passing the Turing test (plus high-speed calculation) includes.
If I am confident that a human is capable of building human-level intelligence, my confidence that a human-level intelligence cannot build a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence, given sufficient trials, becomes pretty low. Ditto my confidence that a slightly-higher-than-human intelligence cannot build a slightly-smarter-than-that intelligence, and so forth.
But, sure, it’s far from zero. As you say, it’s not a guarantee.