I suspect you’re suffering from availability bias. Specifically, thinking about the utilitometer has caused you to subjectively overestimate how likely you are to succeed.
Obviously I believe I have no chance of success with the toy as described. But the slightest increase in predictive power seems to have a great deal of benefit. The marginal utility of increases in utility prediction seems quite high to me. Does it not seem that way to others?
I suspect you’re suffering from availability bias. Specifically, thinking about the utilitometer has caused you to subjectively overestimate how likely you are to succeed.
Obviously I believe I have no chance of success with the toy as described. But the slightest increase in predictive power seems to have a great deal of benefit. The marginal utility of increases in utility prediction seems quite high to me. Does it not seem that way to others?
Yes, well that’s sort of the point of this site.
So how did everyone else avoid the pathological effect of that taking up more of their thought patterns than ‘actual’ utility? Or maybe they didn’t.
Anyone spending time on here clearly believes that improving their ability to predict things is worthwhile.
Either that or they just think this place is kinda fun. Or both.
It’s not necessarily pathological to devote more resources to investment than consumption for the time being. (LW may not be the best form of investment.)