Yes! Very good points. A clever trick with an anthropic ghost. I have a vague feeling that there may be a non-sequitur hidden there somewhere, but can’t exactly point it out.
As I’ve mentioned here updating on “anthropic evidence” is the refusal to update on regular evidence.
Adding here the fact that core assumption of both SSA and SIA that I’m selected from a random sample are often wrong, I think it’s possible to make a general case against anthropic reasoning.
But I do think in cases where you exist before the anthropic weirdness goes down, you can use reflection to eliminate much of the mysteriousness of it (just pick an optimal policy and commit that your future selves will follow it). What’s currently puzzling me is what to do when the anthropic thought experiments start before you even existed.
See We need a theory of anthropic measure binding for example.
I don’t think I accept the premise. As with any other situation where either A or B can happen but I don’t have any other relevant information I default to an equiprobable prior.
All the attempts to guess what the “universe cares more about” seem completely unsubstantiated and confused. Likewise with the equivalence of anthropic and compassion binding based on pure vibes and not any evidence that our universe has ethics encoded in its fabric in some way.
I believe my approach doesn’t lead to any paradoxes or bizarre scenarios even in cases when the thought experiment started before my existence. Can you think of a counterexample?
Yes! Very good points. A clever trick with an anthropic ghost. I have a vague feeling that there may be a non-sequitur hidden there somewhere, but can’t exactly point it out.
As I’ve mentioned here updating on “anthropic evidence” is the refusal to update on regular evidence.
Adding here the fact that core assumption of both SSA and SIA that I’m selected from a random sample are often wrong, I think it’s possible to make a general case against anthropic reasoning.
Eh, don’t get too cocky. There are definitely some weird bits of anthropics. See We need a theory of anthropic measure binding for example.
But I do think in cases where you exist before the anthropic weirdness goes down, you can use reflection to eliminate much of the mysteriousness of it (just pick an optimal policy and commit that your future selves will follow it). What’s currently puzzling me is what to do when the anthropic thought experiments start before you even existed.
I don’t think I accept the premise. As with any other situation where either A or B can happen but I don’t have any other relevant information I default to an equiprobable prior.
All the attempts to guess what the “universe cares more about” seem completely unsubstantiated and confused. Likewise with the equivalence of anthropic and compassion binding based on pure vibes and not any evidence that our universe has ethics encoded in its fabric in some way.
I believe my approach doesn’t lead to any paradoxes or bizarre scenarios even in cases when the thought experiment started before my existence. Can you think of a counterexample?