I think we basically agree now. I think my original comments were somewhat confused, but also the deadly coin model was somewhat confused. I think the best model is a variant of the N-coin model where one or more of the coins are obscured, and I think in this model your proof goes through to show that you should independently perform Bayesian updates on each coin, and that since you don’t get information about the obscured coin, you should not update on it in a anthropic shadow style way.
I think we basically agree now. I think my original comments were somewhat confused, but also the deadly coin model was somewhat confused. I think the best model is a variant of the N-coin model where one or more of the coins are obscured, and I think in this model your proof goes through to show that you should independently perform Bayesian updates on each coin, and that since you don’t get information about the obscured coin, you should not update on it in a anthropic shadow style way.