When I observe that there’s no fire alarm for AGI, I’m not saying that there’s no possible equivalent of smoke appearing from under a door.
What I’m saying rather is that the smoke under the door is always going to be arguable; it is not going to be a clear and undeniable and absolute sign of fire; and so there is never going to be a fire alarm producing common knowledge that action is now due and socially acceptable. …
There is never going to be a time before the end when you can look around nervously, and see that it is now clearly common knowledge that you can talk about AGI being imminent, and take action and exit the building in an orderly fashion, without fear of looking stupid or frightened.
The article convincingly makes the weaker claim that there’s no guarantee of a fire alarm, and provides several cases which support this. I don’t buy the claim (which the article also tries to make) that there is no possible fire alarm, and such a claim seems impossible to prove anyway.
Whether it’s smoke or a fire alarm, that doesn’t really address the specific question I’m asking, in any case.
Such scenarios are at best smoke, not fire alarms.
The article convincingly makes the weaker claim that there’s no guarantee of a fire alarm, and provides several cases which support this. I don’t buy the claim (which the article also tries to make) that there is no possible fire alarm, and such a claim seems impossible to prove anyway.
Whether it’s smoke or a fire alarm, that doesn’t really address the specific question I’m asking, in any case.