Welp, I was wrong: the Feb 11 shows a 45% likely invasion before 2023, which is not consistent with the won’t-invade scenario I proposed.
It is consistent with a moderate expectation of another Crimea level event, but not a full-scale invasion. Do we have a way of determining if the same participants are betting across multiple of these questions, or if the answerers are mostly unique?
A second observation:
How is this prediction inconsistent with a combination of these two beliefs:
The Russians are unlikely to invade, and in that case the probability of Russian troops in the capital is ~0
In the counterfactual case where the Russians do invade, the probability of Russian troops in the capital is ~1
For example, Metaculus has a 97% chance of Russians in Kyiv, but a Russian invasion at all before 2023 is at 96%:
Welp, I was wrong: the Feb 11 shows a 45% likely invasion before 2023, which is not consistent with the won’t-invade scenario I proposed.
It is consistent with a moderate expectation of another Crimea level event, but not a full-scale invasion. Do we have a way of determining if the same participants are betting across multiple of these questions, or if the answerers are mostly unique?