Disclaimer, am Romanian so biased against Russia’s geopolitical agenda(which possibly runs through my country in the long run).
I think short term Ukrainian army folds(how much of it is russophile former soviet officers anyway? arguably same as in a lot of former Eastern bloc countries).
Short term questions
How big and serious will the insurgency be? I assume civilians are not heavily armed. I assume some organised groups will get some military gear. I assume some western weapons will get smuggled in.
Who will actually fight it? My very limited knowledge of Ukrainian irregular groups is that they’re all neo-nazis(this is partly Russian propaganda, but I don’t think it’s far off the mark). Presumably some grass-roots upheaval will happen as well, but will all the organizations be run by ultra-nationalists?
Will the EU bite the bullet and really embargo Russia? Probably not, but also maybe? 10% odds?
Can Russia actually pacify the huge mountainous region in Western Ukraine, that borders Poland and Romania?
Long term musing
I don’t see this stopping with Ukraine. There’s a Russian army in Moldova’s breakaway, Transnistria. Putin has basically annexed Belarus. It seems like the time for creating enclaves is over and the time for re-consolidating the Russian empire has begun. If Ukraine gets eaten up with little fuss, I have no doubt Georgia is next. After all, why stop?
This can plausibly escalate into annexing Moldova as well. The Baltic states are the first obvious NATO member target.
Can Russia actually pacify the huge mountainous region in Western Ukraine, that borders Poland and Romania?
I think there’s a potential plan here of ‘establish Galicia-Volhynia* as a puppet’ and ‘incorporate eastern Ukraine’, possibly including a Partition-esque movement of people in both directions. But this makes more sense if the Ukrainian population is 20-50% in favor of being Russian, and it looks like the number is actually closer to 10%? Besides Crimea and the breakaway regions Russia has recognized, it’s not clear there’s all that much that will be worth the trouble to govern under protest.
*IMO superior to calling it something like “Lvivian Ukraine” in the style of Vichy France.
Disclaimer, am Romanian so biased against Russia’s geopolitical agenda(which possibly runs through my country in the long run).
I think short term Ukrainian army folds(how much of it is russophile former soviet officers anyway? arguably same as in a lot of former Eastern bloc countries).
Short term questions
How big and serious will the insurgency be? I assume civilians are not heavily armed. I assume some organised groups will get some military gear. I assume some western weapons will get smuggled in.
Who will actually fight it? My very limited knowledge of Ukrainian irregular groups is that they’re all neo-nazis(this is partly Russian propaganda, but I don’t think it’s far off the mark). Presumably some grass-roots upheaval will happen as well, but will all the organizations be run by ultra-nationalists?
Will the EU bite the bullet and really embargo Russia? Probably not, but also maybe? 10% odds?
Can Russia actually pacify the huge mountainous region in Western Ukraine, that borders Poland and Romania?
Long term musing
I don’t see this stopping with Ukraine. There’s a Russian army in Moldova’s breakaway, Transnistria. Putin has basically annexed Belarus. It seems like the time for creating enclaves is over and the time for re-consolidating the Russian empire has begun. If Ukraine gets eaten up with little fuss, I have no doubt Georgia is next. After all, why stop?
This can plausibly escalate into annexing Moldova as well. The Baltic states are the first obvious NATO member target.
I don’t understand Putin’s goal here. He can’t absorb Ukraine. A puppet regime installed there would be facing civil war for years. Maybe he just wants a really serious distraction for local purposes? I just can’t accept that he has a genuine pseudo-religious belief in shit like http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics because if he does, we’re all in for it.
I think there’s a potential plan here of ‘establish Galicia-Volhynia* as a puppet’ and ‘incorporate eastern Ukraine’, possibly including a Partition-esque movement of people in both directions. But this makes more sense if the Ukrainian population is 20-50% in favor of being Russian, and it looks like the number is actually closer to 10%? Besides Crimea and the breakaway regions Russia has recognized, it’s not clear there’s all that much that will be worth the trouble to govern under protest.
*IMO superior to calling it something like “Lvivian Ukraine” in the style of Vichy France.