Can Russia actually pacify the huge mountainous region in Western Ukraine, that borders Poland and Romania?
I think there’s a potential plan here of ‘establish Galicia-Volhynia* as a puppet’ and ‘incorporate eastern Ukraine’, possibly including a Partition-esque movement of people in both directions. But this makes more sense if the Ukrainian population is 20-50% in favor of being Russian, and it looks like the number is actually closer to 10%? Besides Crimea and the breakaway regions Russia has recognized, it’s not clear there’s all that much that will be worth the trouble to govern under protest.
*IMO superior to calling it something like “Lvivian Ukraine” in the style of Vichy France.
I think there’s a potential plan here of ‘establish Galicia-Volhynia* as a puppet’ and ‘incorporate eastern Ukraine’, possibly including a Partition-esque movement of people in both directions. But this makes more sense if the Ukrainian population is 20-50% in favor of being Russian, and it looks like the number is actually closer to 10%? Besides Crimea and the breakaway regions Russia has recognized, it’s not clear there’s all that much that will be worth the trouble to govern under protest.
*IMO superior to calling it something like “Lvivian Ukraine” in the style of Vichy France.