As it relates to China, I think they care very much...but China cares because it wants to see the world’s reaction to help gauge their own plans for Taiwan. I think Russia’s feelings toward Ukraine very much mirror China’s feelings towards Taiwan. China would very much like to take over Taiwan, and if Russia “gets away” with taking over Ukraine, it’s a good bet that China v Taiwan will be next.
But otherwise, yes, I agree that “China primarily cares about preserving its trade relationships with Russia and the West.”
The Taiwan point is very interesting, but I think China has a powerful strategic interest even if we ignore it.
Specifically it looks to me like the sanctions will drive Russia entirely into the Chinese financial sphere, and radically increase their dependency on commerce with China. If Russia’s relationships with other countries are also subordinated to Chinese interests, and I strongly expect that they will be, it looks like China will rapidly dominate all of Asia in a way similar to how the US dominates North America.
There are also several specific things which will impact the China v. US balance of power. As an example, Russia already bought 70% of its semiconductors from China, but now with the sanctions this will have to be ~100% with much weaker bargaining power so China’s growing semiconductor industry gains a captive market to sustain it. In tandem with China’s virtual monopoly on rare earth mineral refinement, this likely means a net advantage in computation.
As it relates to China, I think they care very much...but China cares because it wants to see the world’s reaction to help gauge their own plans for Taiwan. I think Russia’s feelings toward Ukraine very much mirror China’s feelings towards Taiwan. China would very much like to take over Taiwan, and if Russia “gets away” with taking over Ukraine, it’s a good bet that China v Taiwan will be next.
But otherwise, yes, I agree that “China primarily cares about preserving its trade relationships with Russia and the West.”
The Taiwan point is very interesting, but I think China has a powerful strategic interest even if we ignore it.
Specifically it looks to me like the sanctions will drive Russia entirely into the Chinese financial sphere, and radically increase their dependency on commerce with China. If Russia’s relationships with other countries are also subordinated to Chinese interests, and I strongly expect that they will be, it looks like China will rapidly dominate all of Asia in a way similar to how the US dominates North America.
There are also several specific things which will impact the China v. US balance of power. As an example, Russia already bought 70% of its semiconductors from China, but now with the sanctions this will have to be ~100% with much weaker bargaining power so China’s growing semiconductor industry gains a captive market to sustain it. In tandem with China’s virtual monopoly on rare earth mineral refinement, this likely means a net advantage in computation.