Yeah the terms are always a bit vague; as far as existence proof for AGI goes there’s already humans and evolution, so my definition of a harbinger would be something like ‘A prototype that clearly shows no more conceptual breakthroughs are needed for AGI’.
I still think we’re at least one breakthrough away from that point, however that belief is dampened by Ilya Sutskever’s position on this whose opinion I greatly respect. But either way GPT-3 in particular just doesn’t stand out to me from the rest of DL achievements over the years, from AlexNet to AlphaGo to OpenAI5.
Fair enough, and well said. I don’t think we really disagree then, I just have a lower threshold for how much evidence counts as a harbinger, and that’s just a difference in how we use the words. I also think probably we’ll need at least one more conceptual breakthrough.
What does Ilya Sutskever think? Can you link to something I could read on the subject?
I find that he has an exceptionally sharp intuition about why deep learning works, from the original AlexNet to Deep Double Descent. You can see him predicting the progress in NLP here
Yeah the terms are always a bit vague; as far as existence proof for AGI goes there’s already humans and evolution, so my definition of a harbinger would be something like ‘A prototype that clearly shows no more conceptual breakthroughs are needed for AGI’.
I still think we’re at least one breakthrough away from that point, however that belief is dampened by Ilya Sutskever’s position on this whose opinion I greatly respect. But either way GPT-3 in particular just doesn’t stand out to me from the rest of DL achievements over the years, from AlexNet to AlphaGo to OpenAI5.
And yes, I believe there will be fast takeoff.
Fair enough, and well said. I don’t think we really disagree then, I just have a lower threshold for how much evidence counts as a harbinger, and that’s just a difference in how we use the words. I also think probably we’ll need at least one more conceptual breakthrough.
What does Ilya Sutskever think? Can you link to something I could read on the subject?
You can listen to his thoughts on AGI in this video
I find that he has an exceptionally sharp intuition about why deep learning works, from the original AlexNet to Deep Double Descent. You can see him predicting the progress in NLP here