Maybe, but it also explains why any other thing will cure my hayfever. And shouldn’t it go away if I realize it’s a placebo? And if I say ‘I have this one thing that cures my hayfever reliably, and no other thing does, but it has no mechanism except for the placebo effect’, is that very different from ‘I have this magic thing?’.
I’m not keen on explanations which don’t tell me what to anticipate. But maybe I misunderstand the placebo effect. How would I tell the difference between it and magic?
And if I say ‘I have this one thing that cures my hayfever reliably, and no other thing does, but it has no mechanism except for the placebo effect’, is that very different from ‘I have this magic thing?’.
No, not very. Also, if it turns out that only this one thing works, and no other thing works, then (correcting for the usual expectation effects) that is relatively strong evidence that something more than the placebo effect is going on. Conversely, if it is the placebo effect, I would expect that a variety of substances could replace the sugar pills without changing the effect much.
Another way of putting this is, if I believe that the placebo effect is curing my hayfever, that ultimately means the power to cure my hayfever resides inside my brain and the question is how to arrange things so that that power gets applied properly. If I believe that this pill cures my hayfever (whether via “the placebo effect” or via “magic” or via “science” or whatever other dimly understood label I tack onto the process), that means the power resides outside my brain and the question is how to secure a steady supply of the pill.
Apparently not. The effect might be less, I don’t think the study checked. But once you know it’s a placebo and the placebo works, then you’re no longer taking a sugar pill expecting nothing, you’re taking a sugar pill expecting to get better.
You could tell the difference between the placebo effect and magic by doing a double blind trial on yourself. e.g. Get someone to assign either “magic” pill or identical sugar pill (or solution) with a random number generator for a period where you’ll be taking the drug, prepare them and put them in order for you to take on successive days, and write down the order to check later. Then don’t talk to them for the period of the experiment. (If you want to talk to them you can apply your own shuffle and write down how to reverse it)
Exactly. You write down your observations for each day and then compare them to the list to see if you felt better on days when you were taking the actual pill.
Only if it’s not too costly to check, of course, and sometimes it is.
Edit: I think gwern’s done a number of self-trials, though I haven’t looked at his exact methodology.
Edit again: In case I haven’t been clear enough, I’m proposing a method to distinguish between “sugar pills that are magic” and “regular sugar pills”.
If you have a selection of ‘magic’ sugar pills, and you want to test them for being magic vs placebo effect, you do a study comparing their efficacy to that of ‘non-magic’ sugar pills.
If they are magic, then you aren’t comparing identical things, because only some of them have the ‘magic’ property
Maybe, but it also explains why any other thing will cure my hayfever. And shouldn’t it go away if I realize it’s a placebo? And if I say ‘I have this one thing that cures my hayfever reliably, and no other thing does, but it has no mechanism except for the placebo effect’, is that very different from ‘I have this magic thing?’.
I’m not keen on explanations which don’t tell me what to anticipate. But maybe I misunderstand the placebo effect. How would I tell the difference between it and magic?
No, not very. Also, if it turns out that only this one thing works, and no other thing works, then (correcting for the usual expectation effects) that is relatively strong evidence that something more than the placebo effect is going on. Conversely, if it is the placebo effect, I would expect that a variety of substances could replace the sugar pills without changing the effect much.
Another way of putting this is, if I believe that the placebo effect is curing my hayfever, that ultimately means the power to cure my hayfever resides inside my brain and the question is how to arrange things so that that power gets applied properly. If I believe that this pill cures my hayfever (whether via “the placebo effect” or via “magic” or via “science” or whatever other dimly understood label I tack onto the process), that means the power resides outside my brain and the question is how to secure a steady supply of the pill.
Those two conditions seem pretty different to me.
Apparently not. The effect might be less, I don’t think the study checked. But once you know it’s a placebo and the placebo works, then you’re no longer taking a sugar pill expecting nothing, you’re taking a sugar pill expecting to get better.
You could tell the difference between the placebo effect and magic by doing a double blind trial on yourself. e.g. Get someone to assign either “magic” pill or identical sugar pill (or solution) with a random number generator for a period where you’ll be taking the drug, prepare them and put them in order for you to take on successive days, and write down the order to check later. Then don’t talk to them for the period of the experiment. (If you want to talk to them you can apply your own shuffle and write down how to reverse it)
Wait, what? I’m taking a stack of identical things and whether they work or not depends on a randomly generated list I’ve never seen?
Exactly. You write down your observations for each day and then compare them to the list to see if you felt better on days when you were taking the actual pill.
Only if it’s not too costly to check, of course, and sometimes it is.
Edit: I think gwern’s done a number of self-trials, though I haven’t looked at his exact methodology.
Edit again: In case I haven’t been clear enough, I’m proposing a method to distinguish between “sugar pills that are magic” and “regular sugar pills”.
Edit3: ninja’d
If you have a selection of ‘magic’ sugar pills, and you want to test them for being magic vs placebo effect, you do a study comparing their efficacy to that of ‘non-magic’ sugar pills.
If they are magic, then you aren’t comparing identical things, because only some of them have the ‘magic’ property