Summary: I see very little danger for now, particularly in this group. If basic hygiene stops working I’ll be more worried.
I weep for the group of aspiring rationalists who can’t even be bothered to wash their damn hands. By all accounts, that’s the easiestway to severely limit the spread of COVID-19. Fatality seems to go up with the age of the patient, and if the 2020 SSC survey is any indication, the average age of this group is in the low 30s. Nearly all of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been in China (77.6k chinese cases / 80.2k global cases = 97%) [Johns Hopkins data and visualizations], so maybe we shouldn’t have CFAR workshops there.
Acknowledged and agreed (with the addendum that COVID-19 isn’t actually killing children at elevated rates, but that’s really weird). The fact remains that the first unaccounted for case in the US was only just found yesterday. Around here, all of us with access to soap and water and reasonable healthcare are currently in next to no danger. The going strategy is to keep good hygiene, especially good hand hygiene, and review emergency procedures. What I’m seeing is the start of a panic, and that is entirely uncalled for. It may be only a matter of time before we reach dangerous levels of infection in the US, but we aren’t there yet.
BTW, thank you for being the only person so far to comment instead of just downvoting without adding to the discussion. Much appreciated!
Around here, all of us with access to soap and water and reasonable healthcare are currently in next to no danger.
The current status isn’t the only things that’s relevant when planning workshops of the CFAR style that need to be announced and planned months before they begin.
Fair point. I guess it depends on how hard it is to cancel a complex event on (relatively) short notice if things should take a bad turn between planning and execution.
Summary: I see very little danger for now, particularly in this group. If basic hygiene stops working I’ll be more worried.
I weep for the group of aspiring rationalists who can’t even be bothered to wash their damn hands. By all accounts, that’s the easiest way to severely limit the spread of COVID-19. Fatality seems to go up with the age of the patient, and if the 2020 SSC survey is any indication, the average age of this group is in the low 30s. Nearly all of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been in China (77.6k chinese cases / 80.2k global cases = 97%) [Johns Hopkins data and visualizations], so maybe we shouldn’t have CFAR workshops there.
(edited for formatting and clarity)
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Acknowledged and agreed (with the addendum that COVID-19 isn’t actually killing children at elevated rates, but that’s really weird). The fact remains that the first unaccounted for case in the US was only just found yesterday. Around here, all of us with access to soap and water and reasonable healthcare are currently in next to no danger. The going strategy is to keep good hygiene, especially good hand hygiene, and review emergency procedures. What I’m seeing is the start of a panic, and that is entirely uncalled for. It may be only a matter of time before we reach dangerous levels of infection in the US, but we aren’t there yet.
BTW, thank you for being the only person so far to comment instead of just downvoting without adding to the discussion. Much appreciated!
The current status isn’t the only things that’s relevant when planning workshops of the CFAR style that need to be announced and planned months before they begin.
Fair point. I guess it depends on how hard it is to cancel a complex event on (relatively) short notice if things should take a bad turn between planning and execution.