I don’t have a deep confident argument that we should pause before ‘slightly superhuman level’, but I do think we will need to pause then, and I think getting humanity ready to pause takes like 3 years which is also what my earliesh possible timelines are, so I think we need to start laying the groundwork now so that, even if you think we shouldn’t pause till later, we are ready civilizationally to pause quite abruptly.
Well, it seems we are closer to agreement than we thought about when a pause could be good. I am unsure about the correct way to prep for the pause. I do think we are about 2-4 years from human-level AI, and could get to above-human-level within a year after that if we so chose.
It’s more like an intuitive guess than anything based on anything particularly rigorous, but, like, it takes time for companies and nation-states and international communities to get to agree to things, we don’t seem anywhere close, there will be political forces opposing the pause, and 3 years seems like a generously short time if we even got moderately lucky, to get all the necessary actors to pause in a stable way.
I don’t have a deep confident argument that we should pause before ‘slightly superhuman level’, but I do think we will need to pause then, and I think getting humanity ready to pause takes like 3 years which is also what my earliesh possible timelines are, so I think we need to start laying the groundwork now so that, even if you think we shouldn’t pause till later, we are ready civilizationally to pause quite abruptly.
Well, it seems we are closer to agreement than we thought about when a pause could be good. I am unsure about the correct way to prep for the pause. I do think we are about 2-4 years from human-level AI, and could get to above-human-level within a year after that if we so chose.
What makes you say 3 years?
It’s more like an intuitive guess than anything based on anything particularly rigorous, but, like, it takes time for companies and nation-states and international communities to get to agree to things, we don’t seem anywhere close, there will be political forces opposing the pause, and 3 years seems like a generously short time if we even got moderately lucky, to get all the necessary actors to pause in a stable way.