It’s more like an intuitive guess than anything based on anything particularly rigorous, but, like, it takes time for companies and nation-states and international communities to get to agree to things, we don’t seem anywhere close, there will be political forces opposing the pause, and 3 years seems like a generously short time if we even got moderately lucky, to get all the necessary actors to pause in a stable way.
It’s more like an intuitive guess than anything based on anything particularly rigorous, but, like, it takes time for companies and nation-states and international communities to get to agree to things, we don’t seem anywhere close, there will be political forces opposing the pause, and 3 years seems like a generously short time if we even got moderately lucky, to get all the necessary actors to pause in a stable way.