Is it really true that most people sympathetic to short timelines are thus mainly due to social proof cascade? I don’t know any such person myself; the short-timelines people I know are either people who have thought about it a ton and developed detailed models, or people who just got super excited about GPT-3 and recent AI progress basically. The people who like to defer to others pretty much all have medium or long timelines, in my opinion, because that’s the respectable/normal thing to think.
Is it really true that most people sympathetic to short timelines are thus mainly due to social proof cascade? I don’t know any such person myself; the short-timelines people I know are either people who have thought about it a ton and developed detailed models, or people who just got super excited about GPT-3 and recent AI progress basically. The people who like to defer to others pretty much all have medium or long timelines, in my opinion, because that’s the respectable/normal thing to think.