I’m not sure how much sense this will make, but my meta-credences still say that anything from 2% to 75% chance of disaster are reasonable. I am very uncertain on some very fundamental questions about this virus.
My thoughts are best described as a bunch of scattered intuitions that I have picked up by reading Metaculus comments and analyzing the history of previous pandemics. My estimates are also fluctuating rapidly, and I am worried that if I am constantly spewing out new estimates people will confuse this proper Bayesian updating with ill-judgement. I will keep you updated if or when I write a full inquiry.
You still haven’t said why a few days ago you updated to only 5% chance of >50 million global deaths within 1 year. I’m really curious about that.
I’m not sure how much sense this will make, but my meta-credences still say that anything from 2% to 75% chance of disaster are reasonable. I am very uncertain on some very fundamental questions about this virus.
My thoughts are best described as a bunch of scattered intuitions that I have picked up by reading Metaculus comments and analyzing the history of previous pandemics. My estimates are also fluctuating rapidly, and I am worried that if I am constantly spewing out new estimates people will confuse this proper Bayesian updating with ill-judgement. I will keep you updated if or when I write a full inquiry.