My thoughts are best described as a bunch of scattered intuitions that I have picked up by reading Metaculus comments and analyzing the history of previous pandemics. My estimates are also fluctuating rapidly, and I am worried that if I am constantly spewing out new estimates people will confuse this proper Bayesian updating with ill-judgement. I will keep you updated if or when I write a full inquiry.
My thoughts are best described as a bunch of scattered intuitions that I have picked up by reading Metaculus comments and analyzing the history of previous pandemics. My estimates are also fluctuating rapidly, and I am worried that if I am constantly spewing out new estimates people will confuse this proper Bayesian updating with ill-judgement. I will keep you updated if or when I write a full inquiry.