A major church figure will face allegations of child abuse.
Europeans will riot over reductions in social programs.
A vague new terrorist threat will lead to increased security procedures at American airports.
A conservative talk show host in America will openly endorse murder of atheists, homosexuals, or immigrants.
Video of a pop star engaged in sexual acts will be leaked to the public.
A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.
A natural disaster will strike a third world country, causing everyone to completely forget about Haiti once again.
Literally dozens of Americans, many of whom are on social security or medicare, will protest government social programs in America as socialism.
North Korea will say or do something crazy.
So will Mel Gibson.
Stores will sell out of the newest overpriced shiny Apple gadget on release day.
The sun will rise each day except in areas above 66 degrees latitude.
All of these I think I can safely predict with 95% confidence. They aren’t the most earth shattering, but I’m rational enough to know my predictive limits.
I guess I should have said 95% confidence on each of them rather than all of them.
I would take 10 to one odds on any of them individually, and probably even money on all of them, depending on how the predictions were formalized. (IE instead of “A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.” “CNN will devote X hours of news time to the death of an actor who has not starred in a movie grossing over Y million in the last Z years, or a musician who has not made it onto the Billboard top 100 in at least Z years.”
Out of curiosity, which ones would you think most likely to turn out wrong and lose the bet for me?
A major church figure will face allegations of child abuse.
Europeans will riot over reductions in social programs.
A vague new terrorist threat will lead to increased security procedures at American airports.
A conservative talk show host in America will openly endorse murder of atheists, homosexuals, or immigrants.
Video of a pop star engaged in sexual acts will be leaked to the public.
A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.
A natural disaster will strike a third world country, causing everyone to completely forget about Haiti once again.
Literally dozens of Americans, many of whom are on social security or medicare, will protest government social programs in America as socialism.
North Korea will say or do something crazy.
So will Mel Gibson.
Stores will sell out of the newest overpriced shiny Apple gadget on release day.
The sun will rise each day except in areas above 66 degrees latitude.
All of these I think I can safely predict with 95% confidence. They aren’t the most earth shattering, but I’m rational enough to know my predictive limits.
Actually this seems pretty overconfident. Would you take an even money bet on the conjunction of all of them?
I guess I should have said 95% confidence on each of them rather than all of them. I would take 10 to one odds on any of them individually, and probably even money on all of them, depending on how the predictions were formalized. (IE instead of “A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.” “CNN will devote X hours of news time to the death of an actor who has not starred in a movie grossing over Y million in the last Z years, or a musician who has not made it onto the Billboard top 100 in at least Z years.”
Out of curiosity, which ones would you think most likely to turn out wrong and lose the bet for me?
These all sound somehow familiar… ;)