I guess I should have said 95% confidence on each of them rather than all of them.
I would take 10 to one odds on any of them individually, and probably even money on all of them, depending on how the predictions were formalized. (IE instead of “A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.” “CNN will devote X hours of news time to the death of an actor who has not starred in a movie grossing over Y million in the last Z years, or a musician who has not made it onto the Billboard top 100 in at least Z years.”
Out of curiosity, which ones would you think most likely to turn out wrong and lose the bet for me?
Actually this seems pretty overconfident. Would you take an even money bet on the conjunction of all of them?
I guess I should have said 95% confidence on each of them rather than all of them. I would take 10 to one odds on any of them individually, and probably even money on all of them, depending on how the predictions were formalized. (IE instead of “A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.” “CNN will devote X hours of news time to the death of an actor who has not starred in a movie grossing over Y million in the last Z years, or a musician who has not made it onto the Billboard top 100 in at least Z years.”
Out of curiosity, which ones would you think most likely to turn out wrong and lose the bet for me?