World oil production sounds like it would be a real pain to verify, so unless you have a specific data source in mind, I think I’m going to omit it—I certainly don’t want to spend hours googling and ad-hoc educating myself about world oil production until I can make a guess at how to judge the prediction.
Physics: omitting because don’t know how one would judge it.
EDIT: oil has already been closed as correct. I was probably underconfident there—oil has such volatility in recent years one should expect it to go over $100/bbl even with quasi-efficient markets in mind.
No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics—that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
Wow yeah; good catch. You are of course right about the time lag, which I hadn’t researched when I pulled that guess out of my arse. I think I’ll retract this prediction.
Oil over $100/bbl: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2122
World oil production sounds like it would be a real pain to verify, so unless you have a specific data source in mind, I think I’m going to omit it—I certainly don’t want to spend hours googling and ad-hoc educating myself about world oil production until I can make a guess at how to judge the prediction.
AGI seems like a dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
Kim: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2123
Physics: omitting because don’t know how one would judge it.
EDIT: oil has already been closed as correct. I was probably underconfident there—oil has such volatility in recent years one should expect it to go over $100/bbl even with quasi-efficient markets in mind.
Thanks
2 - I’ve put up a more precise prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2134
5 - I’ve put up a more precise prediction asserting a Nobel prize win for a non-string unification theory by end of 2020.
5 - http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2135
No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics—that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
Wow yeah; good catch. You are of course right about the time lag, which I hadn’t researched when I pulled that guess out of my arse. I think I’ll retract this prediction.