No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics—that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
Wow yeah; good catch. You are of course right about the time lag, which I hadn’t researched when I pulled that guess out of my arse. I think I’ll retract this prediction.
5 - http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2135
No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics—that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
Wow yeah; good catch. You are of course right about the time lag, which I hadn’t researched when I pulled that guess out of my arse. I think I’ll retract this prediction.