I don’t necessarily think you have to take the “AI” example for the point to make sense though.
I think “reasoning your way to a distant inference”, as a human, is probably a far less controversial example that could be used here. In that most people here seem to assume there are ways to make distant inferences (e.g. about the capabilities of computers in the far off future), which historically seems fairly far fetched, it almost never happens when it does it is celebrated, but the success rate seems fairly small and there doesn’t seem to be a clear formula for it that works.
I don’t necessarily think you have to take the “AI” example for the point to make sense though.
I think “reasoning your way to a distant inference”, as a human, is probably a far less controversial example that could be used here. In that most people here seem to assume there are ways to make distant inferences (e.g. about the capabilities of computers in the far off future), which historically seems fairly far fetched, it almost never happens when it does it is celebrated, but the success rate seems fairly small and there doesn’t seem to be a clear formula for it that works.