Metaculus (admittedly not the best source of predictions) gives 45% that a vaccine is distributed starting in 2020. One user gives only 70%, taking into account the high urgency and high risk-tolerance of countries like China.
The American NIH says “If the clinical trial enrolls participants as planned, researchers hope to have initial data from the clinical trial within three months.” This means either (a) they’re being slightly misleading, or (b) that further trials will start immediately after that point.
I think our main confusion is whether Phase 1 trials have to be complete before Phase 2-3 trials start. Surely if Phase 1 trials took 14 months and Phase 2 and 3 trials take additional serial time, there’s no way to get the vaccine in mass production within 12-18 months? I’m not 100% sure of this, though.
I don’t think the timeline for Phase 1 trials looks anything like a 14 month delay before Phase 2 trials start.
[https://www.lesswrong.com/users/adele-lopez-1] already mentioned the live vs inactivated vaccine distinction.
Metaculus (admittedly not the best source of predictions) gives 45% that a vaccine is distributed starting in 2020. One user gives only 70%, taking into account the high urgency and high risk-tolerance of countries like China.
The American NIH says “If the clinical trial enrolls participants as planned, researchers hope to have initial data from the clinical trial within three months.” This means either (a) they’re being slightly misleading, or (b) that further trials will start immediately after that point.
Here’s a news article reporting a 14-month Phase 1 trial for the COVID-19 vaccine, and I’ve seen the “12-18 months until vaccine deployment” timeline from Dr. Fauci and the NIH in several sources.
I think our main confusion is whether Phase 1 trials have to be complete before Phase 2-3 trials start. Surely if Phase 1 trials took 14 months and Phase 2 and 3 trials take additional serial time, there’s no way to get the vaccine in mass production within 12-18 months? I’m not 100% sure of this, though.
You’re right; the current plan condenses and overlaps the three phases in order to save a lot of time.
You’re right, you can overlap Phases if the FDA cooperates.