It would be interesting to add in this model that AI has constantly increasing effects on human life expectancy: even ChatGPT now helps with diagnostics; companies use AI for drug development etc.
I totally buy that we’ll see some life expectancy gains before AGI, especially if AGI is more than 10 years away. I mostly just didn’t want to make my model more complex, and if we did see life expectancy gains, the main effect this would have is to take probability away from “die before AGI”.
It would be interesting to add in this model that AI has constantly increasing effects on human life expectancy: even ChatGPT now helps with diagnostics; companies use AI for drug development etc.
As I said in another comment: