The 43% in the post are not “chance of solving aging”, it bakes in survival to see it done. And anyway the feasibility of solving aging seems inevitable, there is nothing mysterious about the problem, it just needs enough cognition and possibly experiments over technical details thrown at it, which superintelligence will have many, many orders of magnitude more than enough capability for carrying out. The only issue might be deciding to do something else and leaving humans to die, and the first few months to years when new industry might still be too weak to undertake such projects casually, not technical feasibility.
The 43% in the post are not “chance of solving aging”, it bakes in survival to see it done. And anyway the feasibility of solving aging seems inevitable, there is nothing mysterious about the problem, it just needs enough cognition and possibly experiments over technical details thrown at it, which superintelligence will have many, many orders of magnitude more than enough capability for carrying out. The only issue might be deciding to do something else and leaving humans to die, and the first few months to years when new industry might still be too weak to undertake such projects casually, not technical feasibility.