If the point is to not just know what the market says, but to know how the world works, then prediction markets in themselves may not be of much help. Here are two quick examples to demonstrate illustrate the point:
Yes: “predict test scores if we include passive hypnotic audio during sleep for students”, with it being no-bet if we don’t do that. Do this for a number of interventions, and then perform the one with best predicted results (and refund all the bets on both sides for conditions that did not occur).
Basic bet: if [candidate] wins the next election, you pay me $5, if he loses, I pay you $5.
Conditional bet: Conditional on the next president being [specific candidate], if marijuana is legalized (between 2020 and 2024), I pay you $5, else you pay me $5. If the condition is not met, no one pays anyone.
EDIT: added next, and (between 2020 and 2024). That’s kind of important.
They can also be made conditional.
Could you say more? Do you mean a prediction market can be on conditional statements?
Yes: “predict test scores if we include passive hypnotic audio during sleep for students”, with it being no-bet if we don’t do that. Do this for a number of interventions, and then perform the one with best predicted results (and refund all the bets on both sides for conditions that did not occur).
Basic bet: if [candidate] wins the next election, you pay me $5, if he loses, I pay you $5.
Conditional bet: Conditional on the next president being [specific candidate], if marijuana is legalized (between 2020 and 2024), I pay you $5, else you pay me $5. If the condition is not met, no one pays anyone.
EDIT: added next, and (between 2020 and 2024). That’s kind of important.