Yes: “predict test scores if we include passive hypnotic audio during sleep for students”, with it being no-bet if we don’t do that. Do this for a number of interventions, and then perform the one with best predicted results (and refund all the bets on both sides for conditions that did not occur).
Basic bet: if [candidate] wins the next election, you pay me $5, if he loses, I pay you $5.
Conditional bet: Conditional on the next president being [specific candidate], if marijuana is legalized (between 2020 and 2024), I pay you $5, else you pay me $5. If the condition is not met, no one pays anyone.
EDIT: added next, and (between 2020 and 2024). That’s kind of important.
Could you say more? Do you mean a prediction market can be on conditional statements?
Yes: “predict test scores if we include passive hypnotic audio during sleep for students”, with it being no-bet if we don’t do that. Do this for a number of interventions, and then perform the one with best predicted results (and refund all the bets on both sides for conditions that did not occur).
Basic bet: if [candidate] wins the next election, you pay me $5, if he loses, I pay you $5.
Conditional bet: Conditional on the next president being [specific candidate], if marijuana is legalized (between 2020 and 2024), I pay you $5, else you pay me $5. If the condition is not met, no one pays anyone.
EDIT: added next, and (between 2020 and 2024). That’s kind of important.