FYI this seems to be roughly the same hypothesis that Ajeya Cotra discusses in her report, under the name of “Horizon Length.” Richard Ngo also endorses this hypothesis. I’m glad you are thinking about it, it’s probably the biggest crux about timelines and takeoff speeds.
FYI this seems to be roughly the same hypothesis that Ajeya Cotra discusses in her report, under the name of “Horizon Length.” Richard Ngo also endorses this hypothesis. I’m glad you are thinking about it, it’s probably the biggest crux about timelines and takeoff speeds.