I am now convinced (>51%) that Harry is going to sell out Quirrell to buy Hermione’s freedom. I originally came to this hypothesis because it is a solid plan; Harry frames Professor Quirrell using his knowledge of Azkaban to free Hermione. He can do this by framing Quirrell as Voldemort, but each conjunction makes a probability less likely so I’ll stick with just the above (even though I personally believe this will be the case). With the Watsonian parts hammered down, I’m awestruck by the elegance of the Doylist reasons.
Instead of looking at fiction as a series of words, we can instead look at it as a way to maximize tension, humor, and dramatic irony while keeping believability as strong as possible. Believability is important. Many other stories have their characters act stupid or out of character to create dramatic moments. At the eleventh hour a (badfanfic!)Harry decides to run off instead of get his friends, or randomly (badfanfic!)Hermione decides to side with Lucius for no goddamn reason. In HPMoR’s case, we will have everyone working in their own rational self interest, intelligently, and coming out with a result that flows seamlessly to create maximal drama.
Harry falsely (accidentally truthfully) rats out Quirrell to save Hermione. From Harry’s point of view he’ll be forced to attack a (guilty but he thinks) innocent man who’s done nothing but help him. Harry knows that Quirrell offered to fake a Voldemort fight for him (partially easing Harry’s guilt), but now he’s doing it without his consent. +1 irony for using Quirrell’s own plan against him.
From Lucius’ point of view he’ll have (Harry!)Voldemort lying about the existence of Voldemort to his face. Lucius will inadvertently help Harry by preventing legillimency being done on Harry because Lucius thinks Harry is Voldemort and Voldemort is an occlumens. Even while we and Harry know he’s not Voldemort, Lucius will not. And Harry will think that Lucius will be helping Harry because he wants to back out of taking revenge while saving face in front of the Wizengamot. Meanwhile Lucius will merely want to prevent the higher standard of evidence from being admitted and realize he’s been outmaneuvered by (who he thinks is) the Dark Lord.
From Quirrell’s point of view he’ll have enacted a perfect plan to break Harry’s ‘side of goodness’ while having Lucius destroy Dumbledore for him… only to be foiled by that fool boy messing up the plan again. Just like in Azkaban he’ll underestimate Harry’s need to save others, but in this case it’ll take the form of betraying Quirrell. Since Harry is the only person Quirrell has ever liked (or possibly even loved), he can take this opportunity to turn even more evil and declare Harry his mortal enemy etc. It’s possible he’s even already laid the groundwork to break Hermione out (ex imperius the auror transferring her), but did not think for Harry to fail two of his lessons at once (be willing to lose / avada kedavra lesson in azkaban).
The story will get to use the investments from TSPE, Occlumency training, and Lucius’ belief in Harrymort. I’m actually kind of in awe of this. Each one of those flowed naturally to create a believable world and fascinating reading in themselves. But that they can be recycled with such efficiency is amazing. Hopefully it’s not just hindsight bias, but I’m seeing threads all the way back 50 chapters woven together. It makes me view Eliezer with a kind of formidableness in storytelling, like the ET Jaynes of fanfiction.
From a narrative point of view, the Voldemort reveal to the world has to occur soon. Voldemort needs to become an adversary to Harry before the final act, and it would require an entire build-up cycle again to make that happen. The Voldemort reveal (to harry) has to occur eventually as well and this preserves it until the very end for maximal drama.
So, in universe it makes sense. Out of universe it creates a beautiful story. I suspect it’s too clever a resolution for Eliezer not to write. If I am correct in my guess, remember that Eliezer is a writer maximizing good storytelling and drama, not a writing trying to trick his audience. Plus, no one reading the chapters as a completed book would have ever figured it out, even as the parts flowed seamlessly together.
And if I’m incorrect in my guess.… well I guess I get a great lesson in humility and calibrating confidence.
If it’s any consolation, it would’ve been elegant—it’s just that it didn’t happen to be where all the story momentum of the last 80 chapters was, in fact, going.
I love your idea. Just reading about it made me want to update downwards my confidence on my own earlier prediction, because indeed yours is narratively very elegant.
I don’t think Eliezer will be doing what you suggest, but even if he doesn’t I might even be interested in reading a parallel fic/path that follows this suggestion instead...
I suppose we will find out any minute now as soon as it updates.
I imagine Quirrell would have planned perfectly to prevent any suspicion to fall on him. But even he might not be able to imagine being framed for a crime he actually committed.
I am now convinced (>51%) that Harry is going to sell out Quirrell to buy Hermione’s freedom. I originally came to this hypothesis because it is a solid plan; Harry frames Professor Quirrell using his knowledge of Azkaban to free Hermione. He can do this by framing Quirrell as Voldemort, but each conjunction makes a probability less likely so I’ll stick with just the above (even though I personally believe this will be the case). With the Watsonian parts hammered down, I’m awestruck by the elegance of the Doylist reasons.
Instead of looking at fiction as a series of words, we can instead look at it as a way to maximize tension, humor, and dramatic irony while keeping believability as strong as possible. Believability is important. Many other stories have their characters act stupid or out of character to create dramatic moments. At the eleventh hour a (badfanfic!)Harry decides to run off instead of get his friends, or randomly (badfanfic!)Hermione decides to side with Lucius for no goddamn reason. In HPMoR’s case, we will have everyone working in their own rational self interest, intelligently, and coming out with a result that flows seamlessly to create maximal drama.
Harry falsely (accidentally truthfully) rats out Quirrell to save Hermione. From Harry’s point of view he’ll be forced to attack a (guilty but he thinks) innocent man who’s done nothing but help him. Harry knows that Quirrell offered to fake a Voldemort fight for him (partially easing Harry’s guilt), but now he’s doing it without his consent. +1 irony for using Quirrell’s own plan against him.
From Lucius’ point of view he’ll have (Harry!)Voldemort lying about the existence of Voldemort to his face. Lucius will inadvertently help Harry by preventing legillimency being done on Harry because Lucius thinks Harry is Voldemort and Voldemort is an occlumens. Even while we and Harry know he’s not Voldemort, Lucius will not. And Harry will think that Lucius will be helping Harry because he wants to back out of taking revenge while saving face in front of the Wizengamot. Meanwhile Lucius will merely want to prevent the higher standard of evidence from being admitted and realize he’s been outmaneuvered by (who he thinks is) the Dark Lord.
From Quirrell’s point of view he’ll have enacted a perfect plan to break Harry’s ‘side of goodness’ while having Lucius destroy Dumbledore for him… only to be foiled by that fool boy messing up the plan again. Just like in Azkaban he’ll underestimate Harry’s need to save others, but in this case it’ll take the form of betraying Quirrell. Since Harry is the only person Quirrell has ever liked (or possibly even loved), he can take this opportunity to turn even more evil and declare Harry his mortal enemy etc. It’s possible he’s even already laid the groundwork to break Hermione out (ex imperius the auror transferring her), but did not think for Harry to fail two of his lessons at once (be willing to lose / avada kedavra lesson in azkaban).
The story will get to use the investments from TSPE, Occlumency training, and Lucius’ belief in Harrymort. I’m actually kind of in awe of this. Each one of those flowed naturally to create a believable world and fascinating reading in themselves. But that they can be recycled with such efficiency is amazing. Hopefully it’s not just hindsight bias, but I’m seeing threads all the way back 50 chapters woven together. It makes me view Eliezer with a kind of formidableness in storytelling, like the ET Jaynes of fanfiction.
From a narrative point of view, the Voldemort reveal to the world has to occur soon. Voldemort needs to become an adversary to Harry before the final act, and it would require an entire build-up cycle again to make that happen. The Voldemort reveal (to harry) has to occur eventually as well and this preserves it until the very end for maximal drama.
So, in universe it makes sense. Out of universe it creates a beautiful story. I suspect it’s too clever a resolution for Eliezer not to write. If I am correct in my guess, remember that Eliezer is a writer maximizing good storytelling and drama, not a writing trying to trick his audience. Plus, no one reading the chapters as a completed book would have ever figured it out, even as the parts flowed seamlessly together.
And if I’m incorrect in my guess.… well I guess I get a great lesson in humility and calibrating confidence.
Ack I am slain.
Well, humble pie is the most delicious type of pie.
If it’s any consolation, it would’ve been elegant—it’s just that it didn’t happen to be where all the story momentum of the last 80 chapters was, in fact, going.
Not just >=51%. >51%. That’s pretty certain! ;)
Haha, good catch. Well, I mean to say that it takes up the majority of my probability mass.
Also, I’m exactly 1% more confident than >50%. >_<
Just a little bit more
than
a little bit more
than half.
I love your idea. Just reading about it made me want to update downwards my confidence on my own earlier prediction, because indeed yours is narratively very elegant.
I don’t think Eliezer will be doing what you suggest, but even if he doesn’t I might even be interested in reading a parallel fic/path that follows this suggestion instead...
I think Quirrell will be a hell of a lot harder to frame than that, and that stumbling block alone drops the odds below even.
I suppose we will find out any minute now as soon as it updates.
I imagine Quirrell would have planned perfectly to prevent any suspicion to fall on him. But even he might not be able to imagine being framed for a crime he actually committed.
That would be a pretty serious failure of imagination for a guy like him.
Well if everyone is right, you and I will be learning the lesson together.