You are basically asking me to give up money in expectation to prove that I really believe what I’m saying, when I’ve already done literally this multiple times. (And besides, hopefully it’s pretty clear that I am serious from my other actions.) So, I’m leaning against doing this, sorry. If you have an idea for a bet that’s net-positive for me I’m all ears.
Yes I do think there’s a significant risk of large AI catastrophe in the next few years. To answer your specific question, maybe something like 5%? idk.
Good question. I guess I’m at 30%, so 2x higher? Low confidence haven’t thought about it much, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what METR/ARC will classify as success, and I also haven’t reread ARC/METR’s ARA eval to remind myself of how hard it is.
Have your probabilities for AGI on given years changed at all since this breakdown you gave 7 months ago? I, and I’m sure many others, defer quite a lot to your views on timelines, so it would be good to have an updated breakdown.
You are basically asking me to give up money in expectation to prove that I really believe what I’m saying, when I’ve already done literally this multiple times. (And besides, hopefully it’s pretty clear that I am serious from my other actions.) So, I’m leaning against doing this, sorry. If you have an idea for a bet that’s net-positive for me I’m all ears.
Yes I do think there’s a significant risk of large AI catastrophe in the next few years. To answer your specific question, maybe something like 5%? idk.
Are you much higher than Metaculus’ community on Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities??
Good question. I guess I’m at 30%, so 2x higher? Low confidence haven’t thought about it much, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what METR/ARC will classify as success, and I also haven’t reread ARC/METR’s ARA eval to remind myself of how hard it is.
Have your probabilities for AGI on given years changed at all since this breakdown you gave 7 months ago? I, and I’m sure many others, defer quite a lot to your views on timelines, so it would be good to have an updated breakdown.
15% − 2024
15% − 2025
15% − 2026
10% − 2027
5% − 2028
5% − 2029
3% − 2030
2% − 2031
2% − 2032
2% − 2033
2% − 2034
2% − 2035
My 2024 probability has gone down from 15% to 5%. Other than that things are pretty similar, so just renormalize I guess.