That’s reasonable. Seems worth mentioning that I did make predictions in What 2026 Looks Like, and eyeballing them now I don’t think I was saying that we’d have personal assistants that shop for you and book meetings for you in 2024, at least not in a way that really works. (I say at the beginning of 2026 “The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.”) In other words I think even in 2021 I was thinking that widespread actually useful AI assistants would happen about a year or two before superintelligence. (Not because I have opinions about the orderings of technologies in general, but because I think that once an AGI company has had a popular working personal assistant for two years they should be able to figure out how to make a better version that dramatically speeds up their R&D.)
That’s reasonable. Seems worth mentioning that I did make predictions in What 2026 Looks Like, and eyeballing them now I don’t think I was saying that we’d have personal assistants that shop for you and book meetings for you in 2024, at least not in a way that really works. (I say at the beginning of 2026 “The age of the AI assistant has finally dawned.”) In other words I think even in 2021 I was thinking that widespread actually useful AI assistants would happen about a year or two before superintelligence. (Not because I have opinions about the orderings of technologies in general, but because I think that once an AGI company has had a popular working personal assistant for two years they should be able to figure out how to make a better version that dramatically speeds up their R&D.)