Drosophila biomass doubles every 2 days. Small things can assemble into large things. If AGI uses serial speed advantage to quickly design superintelligence, which then masters macroscopic biotech (or bootstraps nanotech if that’s feasible) and of course fusion, that gives unprecedented physical infrastructure scaling speed. Given capability/hardware shape of AlphaFold 2, GPT-4, and AlphaZero, there is plausibly enough algorithmic improvement overhang to get there without needing to manufacture more compute hardware first, just a few model training runs.
Drosophila biomass doubles every 2 days. Small things can assemble into large things. If AGI uses serial speed advantage to quickly design superintelligence, which then masters macroscopic biotech (or bootstraps nanotech if that’s feasible) and of course fusion, that gives unprecedented physical infrastructure scaling speed. Given capability/hardware shape of AlphaFold 2, GPT-4, and AlphaZero, there is plausibly enough algorithmic improvement overhang to get there without needing to manufacture more compute hardware first, just a few model training runs.