That concrete scenario was NOT my median prediction. Sorry, I should have made that more clear at the time. It was genuinely just a thought experiment for purposes of eliciting people’s claims about how they would update on what kinds of evidence. My median AGI timeline at the time was 2027 (which is not that different from the scenario, to be clear! Just one year delayed basically.)
To answer your other questions: --My views haven’t changed much. Performance on the important benchmarks (agency tasks such as METR’s RE-Bench) has been faster than I expected for 2024, but the cadence of big new foundation models seems to be slower than I expected (no GPT-5; pretraining scaling is slowing down due to data wall apparently? I thought that would happen more around GPT-6 level). I still have 2027 as my median year for AGI. --Yes, I and others have run versions of that exercise several times now and yes people have found it valuable. The discussion part, people said, was less valuable than the “force yourself to write out your median scenario” part, so in more recent iterations we mostly just focused on that part.
That concrete scenario was NOT my median prediction. Sorry, I should have made that more clear at the time. It was genuinely just a thought experiment for purposes of eliciting people’s claims about how they would update on what kinds of evidence. My median AGI timeline at the time was 2027 (which is not that different from the scenario, to be clear! Just one year delayed basically.)
To answer your other questions:
--My views haven’t changed much. Performance on the important benchmarks (agency tasks such as METR’s RE-Bench) has been faster than I expected for 2024, but the cadence of big new foundation models seems to be slower than I expected (no GPT-5; pretraining scaling is slowing down due to data wall apparently? I thought that would happen more around GPT-6 level). I still have 2027 as my median year for AGI.
--Yes, I and others have run versions of that exercise several times now and yes people have found it valuable. The discussion part, people said, was less valuable than the “force yourself to write out your median scenario” part, so in more recent iterations we mostly just focused on that part.