I think you aren’t engaging with the reasons why smart people think that 1000x energy consumption could happen soon. It’s all about the growth rates. Obviously anything that looks basically like human industrial society won’t be getting to 1000x in the next 20 years; the concern is that a million superintelligences commanding an obedient human nation-state might be able to design a significantly faster-growing economy. For an example of how I’m thinking about this, see this comment.
I think you aren’t engaging with the reasons why smart people think that 1000x energy consumption could happen soon. It’s all about the growth rates. Obviously anything that looks basically like human industrial society won’t be getting to 1000x in the next 20 years; the concern is that a million superintelligences commanding an obedient human nation-state might be able to design a significantly faster-growing economy. For an example of how I’m thinking about this, see this comment.