So your median for the complete automation of remotable jobs is 2055?
What about for the existence of AI systems which can completely automate AI software R&D? (So, filling the shoes of the research engineers and research scientists etc. at DeepMind, the members of technical staff at OpenAI, etc.)
What about your 10th percentile, instead of your median?
Progress on long context coherence, agency, executive function, etc. remains fairly “on trend” despite the acceleration of progress in reasoning and AI systems currently being more useful than I expected, so I don’t update down by 2x or 3x (which is more like the speedup we’ve seen relative to my math or revenue growth expectations).
According to METR, if I recall correctly, 50%-horizon length of LLM-based AI systems has been doubling roughly every 200 days for several years, and seems to if anything be accelerating recently. And it’s already at 40 minutes. So in, idk, four years, if trends continue, AIs should be able to show up and do a day’s work of autonomous research or coding as well as professional humans.* (And that’s assuming an exponential trend, whereas it’ll have to be superexponential eventually. Though of course investment in AI scaling will also be petering out in a few years maybe.)
*A caveat here is that their definition is not “For tasks humans do that take x duration, AI can do them just as well” but rather “For tasks AIs can do with 50% reliability, humans take x duration to do them” which feels different and worse to me in ways I should think about more.
So your median for the complete automation of remotable jobs is 2055?
What about for the existence of AI systems which can completely automate AI software R&D? (So, filling the shoes of the research engineers and research scientists etc. at DeepMind, the members of technical staff at OpenAI, etc.)
What about your 10th percentile, instead of your median?
According to METR, if I recall correctly, 50%-horizon length of LLM-based AI systems has been doubling roughly every 200 days for several years, and seems to if anything be accelerating recently. And it’s already at 40 minutes. So in, idk, four years, if trends continue, AIs should be able to show up and do a day’s work of autonomous research or coding as well as professional humans.* (And that’s assuming an exponential trend, whereas it’ll have to be superexponential eventually. Though of course investment in AI scaling will also be petering out in a few years maybe.)
*A caveat here is that their definition is not “For tasks humans do that take x duration, AI can do them just as well” but rather “For tasks AIs can do with 50% reliability, humans take x duration to do them” which feels different and worse to me in ways I should think about more.