Why do you think that the prosecutor made the assertions?
Can you give me a specific example?
Before you say “narrative,” let me assert that many of the prosecutor’s assertions could have been replaced with “I don’t know” with limited loss of coherence to the narrative
Ok, you’ve said it. And now my answer:
Narrative. I do agree that the prosecutor could have omitted a few things and still had a somewhat coherent narrative. But if he got rid of all the speculation, what he would be left without any motive or explanation for why Knox and Sollecito acted in concert with Guede.
Why do you think that the prosecutor made the assertions?
Can you give me a specific example?
Quoting wikipedia: “[The prosecutor alleged] that the murder was part of a Satanic ritual; that it was a sex game gone wrong; or that Kercher had refused to take part in an orgy.”
Honestly, a substantial part of my doubt of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt is the utter ridiculousness of those allegations. They were not necessary to provide narrative to the jury and could easily have been omitted, since there was apparently no evidence suggesting they were true.
Further, they are the type of allegations I would expect when the prosecutor is seeking to inflame, rather than rationally presenting the evidence.
Quoting wikipedia: “[The prosecutor alleged] that the murder was part of a Satanic ritual; that it was a sex game gone wrong; or that Kercher had refused to take part in an orgy.”
Ok, to answer your question, I believe that the prosecutor made these assertions because he felt pressure to answer the question of Knox and Sollecito’s motives.
Satanic ritual? The prosecutor could have just said, “The roommates had a big fight.” In terms of evidence of guilt, there are two major problems in the “satanic ritual” theory that are not present in a more mundane theory. The satanic ritual theory proves too much, in that there is almost no evidence that could possibly be inconsistent with it. Second, the theory functions to demonize the defendants, which is not consistent with strong actual evidence of guilt.
And those theoretical arguments ignore the practical fact that there was no evidence suggesting interest in satanic ritual by either defendant, which I consider important given the general implausibility of the theory given what I know about society (There are practically no murderous satanists in real life).
The prosecutor could have just said, “The roommates had a big fight.”
Apparently he did also propose more mundane motives. Here’s the full quote from Wikipedia:
The prosecutors proposed a number of possible motives for the murder, for which they produced no evidence, including that Kercher and Knox had fallen out over issues such as the cleaning roster in their home; that the murder was part of a Satanic ritual; that it was a sex game gone wrong; or that Kercher had refused to take part in an orgy.
When you quoted Wikipedia, why did you omit the part about the cleaning roster?
Because I’m interested in why the prosecutor kept talking after he articulated that theory.
Either theory is just speculation, agreed? I mean, if it’s unethical for the prosecutor to argue that there was a satanic ritual, it’s also unethical for him to argue that it’s a dispute over who should clean the apartment. Agreed?
I’m not trying to say the prosecutor is unethical. I’m saying that outlandish claims from the prosecutor are evidence of innocence. It’s just a Big Lie
And if the prosecutor really has no idea why defendant committed a crime, that’s also evidence of innocence, right?
One could rationalize the prosecutor’s behavior by saying that lower standards apply to statements to the media than statements in court. But the reason that it’s unethical to try cases in the media is that this reduces the likelihood that the trial will be correlated with the truth. I attribute knowledge of that principle to the prosecutor, so his decision to try the case in the media suggests that the defendants are innocent.
Ok, I thought we were discussing whether the prosecutor was ethical.
We were discussing whether the prosecutor is competent.
the decision to arrest Knox is evidence of guilt.
No, it isn’t. The decision to arrest is evidence that the authorities think they have evidence of guilt. But the arrest is not independent of the underlying evidence and does not make the underlying evidence stronger.
We were discussing whether the prosecutor is competent.
Ok, then why are you bringing up the question of whether the prosecutor’s assertions are evidentiary?
The decision to arrest is evidence that the authorities think they have evidence of guilt. But the arrest is not independent of the underlying evidence and does not make the underlying evidence stronger.
Similarly, the prosecutor’s proposal that there may have been a Satanic ritual involved is not independent of the underlying (lack of) evidence of motive and does not make the underlying evidence weaker.
The prosecutor’s theory is not evidence of the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the prosecutor thinks the legally relevant evidence is.
The reference to satanic ritual and sex games is an appeal to applause lights. It is political machinations, not an empirically based search for truth. The fact that the prosecutor made that appeal, rather than sticking with a plausible story, shows that the prosecutor doesn’t think the facts support guilt or doesn’t care.
As an observer, I’m allowed to give weight to the fact that one side of a dispute doesn’t seem to be trying to determine the facts.
The prosecutor’s theory is not evidence of the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the prosecutor thinks the legally relevant evidence is.
The decision to arrest the defendant is not the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the authorities think the legally relevant evidence is.
As an observer, I’m allowed to give weight to the fact that one side of a dispute doesn’t seem to be trying to determine the facts
I would say the amount of weight depends on the extent you are relying on unsupported assertions of that side. For example, if we knew nothing at all about the case except the prosecutor saying “Trust me, I have reviewed the evidence and I am satisfied that the Defendant is guilty, it would be very important that the prosecutor is proposing a seemingly outlandish hypothesis.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor. And a prosecutor referencing satanic rituals and sex cults is like a psychologist referencing the “Niceness Gene” to explain some behavior. It isn’t impossibly wrong, but it strongly suggests the expert doesn’t know what he is talking about.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor.
So in your view, any probability assessment of Knox’s guilt which does not put a lot of weight on the prosecutor’s credibility is deeply flawed. Agreed?
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt. But the fact is that the prosecutor and other Italian authorities are engaging in a lot of motivated cognition to support the theory of guilt even when the evidence doesn’t support it.
The motivated cognition is so blatant that it persuaded me that Knox was probably not guilty even before I looked at the evidence. I suspect that if the world were more rational, my reasoning would be less likely to provide useful insight.
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt.
How do you know this if you do not have access to all of the evidence and therefore must “look to the experts”?
It seems to me that you and I both have access to enough of the evidence to make a decent estimate of the probability of Knox’s guilt without relying on someone who has superior access to the evidence.
My estimate of how ethical it is for a prosecutor to propose theory X about a defendant’s motive increases with how common X is, and decreases with how sensational X is. Roommates arguing over cleaning an apartment is both more common and less sensational than satanic rituals, so my estimates of how ethical it is to propose those theories differs.
Of course, maybe there’s some particularly salient threshold that both examples exceed. If so, it’s worth articulating that threshold explicitly… when it comes to propounding theories about motive, it’s not clear to me what that threshold is or ought to be.
Can you give me a specific example?
Ok, you’ve said it. And now my answer:
Narrative. I do agree that the prosecutor could have omitted a few things and still had a somewhat coherent narrative. But if he got rid of all the speculation, what he would be left without any motive or explanation for why Knox and Sollecito acted in concert with Guede.
Quoting wikipedia: “[The prosecutor alleged] that the murder was part of a Satanic ritual; that it was a sex game gone wrong; or that Kercher had refused to take part in an orgy.”
Honestly, a substantial part of my doubt of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt is the utter ridiculousness of those allegations. They were not necessary to provide narrative to the jury and could easily have been omitted, since there was apparently no evidence suggesting they were true.
Further, they are the type of allegations I would expect when the prosecutor is seeking to inflame, rather than rationally presenting the evidence.
Ok, to answer your question, I believe that the prosecutor made these assertions because he felt pressure to answer the question of Knox and Sollecito’s motives.
Satanic ritual? The prosecutor could have just said, “The roommates had a big fight.” In terms of evidence of guilt, there are two major problems in the “satanic ritual” theory that are not present in a more mundane theory. The satanic ritual theory proves too much, in that there is almost no evidence that could possibly be inconsistent with it. Second, the theory functions to demonize the defendants, which is not consistent with strong actual evidence of guilt.
And those theoretical arguments ignore the practical fact that there was no evidence suggesting interest in satanic ritual by either defendant, which I consider important given the general implausibility of the theory given what I know about society (There are practically no murderous satanists in real life).
Apparently he did also propose more mundane motives. Here’s the full quote from Wikipedia:
When you quoted Wikipedia, why did you omit the part about the cleaning roster?
Because I’m interested in why the prosecutor kept talking after he articulated that theory.
Either theory is just speculation, agreed? I mean, if it’s unethical for the prosecutor to argue that there was a satanic ritual, it’s also unethical for him to argue that it’s a dispute over who should clean the apartment. Agreed?
I’m not trying to say the prosecutor is unethical. I’m saying that outlandish claims from the prosecutor are evidence of innocence. It’s just a Big Lie
And if the prosecutor really has no idea why defendant committed a crime, that’s also evidence of innocence, right?
One could rationalize the prosecutor’s behavior by saying that lower standards apply to statements to the media than statements in court. But the reason that it’s unethical to try cases in the media is that this reduces the likelihood that the trial will be correlated with the truth. I attribute knowledge of that principle to the prosecutor, so his decision to try the case in the media suggests that the defendants are innocent.
Ok, I thought we were discussing whether the prosecutor was ethical.
I agree. And the decision to arrest Knox is evidence of guilt.
We were discussing whether the prosecutor is competent.
No, it isn’t. The decision to arrest is evidence that the authorities think they have evidence of guilt. But the arrest is not independent of the underlying evidence and does not make the underlying evidence stronger.
Ok, then why are you bringing up the question of whether the prosecutor’s assertions are evidentiary?
Similarly, the prosecutor’s proposal that there may have been a Satanic ritual involved is not independent of the underlying (lack of) evidence of motive and does not make the underlying evidence weaker.
The prosecutor’s theory is not evidence of the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the prosecutor thinks the legally relevant evidence is.
The reference to satanic ritual and sex games is an appeal to applause lights. It is political machinations, not an empirically based search for truth. The fact that the prosecutor made that appeal, rather than sticking with a plausible story, shows that the prosecutor doesn’t think the facts support guilt or doesn’t care.
As an observer, I’m allowed to give weight to the fact that one side of a dispute doesn’t seem to be trying to determine the facts.
A prosecutor will always make the strongest case they think they can, and juries do not comprise perfect rationalists.
The decision to arrest the defendant is not the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the authorities think the legally relevant evidence is.
I would say the amount of weight depends on the extent you are relying on unsupported assertions of that side. For example, if we knew nothing at all about the case except the prosecutor saying “Trust me, I have reviewed the evidence and I am satisfied that the Defendant is guilty, it would be very important that the prosecutor is proposing a seemingly outlandish hypothesis.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor. And a prosecutor referencing satanic rituals and sex cults is like a psychologist referencing the “Niceness Gene” to explain some behavior. It isn’t impossibly wrong, but it strongly suggests the expert doesn’t know what he is talking about.
So in your view, any probability assessment of Knox’s guilt which does not put a lot of weight on the prosecutor’s credibility is deeply flawed. Agreed?
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt. But the fact is that the prosecutor and other Italian authorities are engaging in a lot of motivated cognition to support the theory of guilt even when the evidence doesn’t support it.
The motivated cognition is so blatant that it persuaded me that Knox was probably not guilty even before I looked at the evidence. I suspect that if the world were more rational, my reasoning would be less likely to provide useful insight.
How do you know this if you do not have access to all of the evidence and therefore must “look to the experts”?
It seems to me that you and I both have access to enough of the evidence to make a decent estimate of the probability of Knox’s guilt without relying on someone who has superior access to the evidence.
I’m not sure I would agree with this, FWIW.
My estimate of how ethical it is for a prosecutor to propose theory X about a defendant’s motive increases with how common X is, and decreases with how sensational X is. Roommates arguing over cleaning an apartment is both more common and less sensational than satanic rituals, so my estimates of how ethical it is to propose those theories differs.
Of course, maybe there’s some particularly salient threshold that both examples exceed. If so, it’s worth articulating that threshold explicitly… when it comes to propounding theories about motive, it’s not clear to me what that threshold is or ought to be.