The prosecutor’s theory is not evidence of the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the prosecutor thinks the legally relevant evidence is.
The decision to arrest the defendant is not the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the authorities think the legally relevant evidence is.
As an observer, I’m allowed to give weight to the fact that one side of a dispute doesn’t seem to be trying to determine the facts
I would say the amount of weight depends on the extent you are relying on unsupported assertions of that side. For example, if we knew nothing at all about the case except the prosecutor saying “Trust me, I have reviewed the evidence and I am satisfied that the Defendant is guilty, it would be very important that the prosecutor is proposing a seemingly outlandish hypothesis.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor. And a prosecutor referencing satanic rituals and sex cults is like a psychologist referencing the “Niceness Gene” to explain some behavior. It isn’t impossibly wrong, but it strongly suggests the expert doesn’t know what he is talking about.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor.
So in your view, any probability assessment of Knox’s guilt which does not put a lot of weight on the prosecutor’s credibility is deeply flawed. Agreed?
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt. But the fact is that the prosecutor and other Italian authorities are engaging in a lot of motivated cognition to support the theory of guilt even when the evidence doesn’t support it.
The motivated cognition is so blatant that it persuaded me that Knox was probably not guilty even before I looked at the evidence. I suspect that if the world were more rational, my reasoning would be less likely to provide useful insight.
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt.
How do you know this if you do not have access to all of the evidence and therefore must “look to the experts”?
It seems to me that you and I both have access to enough of the evidence to make a decent estimate of the probability of Knox’s guilt without relying on someone who has superior access to the evidence.
The decision to arrest the defendant is not the same type as DNA. But it tells us something about how strong the authorities think the legally relevant evidence is.
I would say the amount of weight depends on the extent you are relying on unsupported assertions of that side. For example, if we knew nothing at all about the case except the prosecutor saying “Trust me, I have reviewed the evidence and I am satisfied that the Defendant is guilty, it would be very important that the prosecutor is proposing a seemingly outlandish hypothesis.
This is the expertise problem. You and I do not have access to all the evidence, so we look to the experts. If anyone is an expert on the strength of the case, it is the prosecutor. And a prosecutor referencing satanic rituals and sex cults is like a psychologist referencing the “Niceness Gene” to explain some behavior. It isn’t impossibly wrong, but it strongly suggests the expert doesn’t know what he is talking about.
So in your view, any probability assessment of Knox’s guilt which does not put a lot of weight on the prosecutor’s credibility is deeply flawed. Agreed?
No. The physical evidence does not support Knox’s guilt. But the fact is that the prosecutor and other Italian authorities are engaging in a lot of motivated cognition to support the theory of guilt even when the evidence doesn’t support it.
The motivated cognition is so blatant that it persuaded me that Knox was probably not guilty even before I looked at the evidence. I suspect that if the world were more rational, my reasoning would be less likely to provide useful insight.
How do you know this if you do not have access to all of the evidence and therefore must “look to the experts”?
It seems to me that you and I both have access to enough of the evidence to make a decent estimate of the probability of Knox’s guilt without relying on someone who has superior access to the evidence.