JoshuaZ’s comment reflects everything I have to say about this.
As I said to JoshuaZ, the main point of that passage was that you are ignorant of the case against Knox. Which you do not seem to deny anymore.
Then why is there no evidence of prior communications between Knox, Sollecito and Guede to support this?
The prosecution has no record of phone calls between Knox and Guede, and has no evidence or testimony of any sort to suggest that the two were more than slightly acquainted.
Not all communications result in a phone or other record. Particularly if some of those communications are between drug users and elements of the criminal underworld.
I would say that my previous assignment of 1:100 may have been excessive; a prior ratio of 1:20, as you assigned, might be more reasonable.
Ok, then it was reasonable for me to go from 90% to 30%. Unless you think there is an error in my math?
Just how little evidence do you expect prosecutors with a heavy dose of motivated cognition to find for an innocent person, that you think what the prosecution found weighs so heavily against Knox and Sollecito?
I would say a lot less than here. Maybe one or two pieces of inculpatory evidence at most.
By the way, can I take it you are conceding that Knox (and/or her supporters) would have had an incentive to introduce and publicize evidence that there were more traces of Guede on or about Kercher than the two I mentioned earlier?
As I said to JoshuaZ, the main point of that passage was that you are ignorant of the case against Knox. Which you do not seem to deny anymore.
I do deny this. You accuse me of not defending my claim that Knox’s mannerisms are among the strongest evidence against her. I have defended at several points my reasons for assigning very low weight to pieces of evidence put forward by the prosecution. You, on the other hand, while asserting that the prosecution’s arguments collectively deserve high weight, have not defended your reasons for assigning high weight to any of them. In response to requests for a defense of such, you’ve told me it’s not your job to do my homework.
Ok, then it was reasonable for me to go from 90% to 30%. Unless you think there is an error in my math?
Only if you assign zero weight to the evidence rendering conspiracy between them unlikely.
Not all communications require physical meeting or result in a phone record. But when you have no evidence of private meeting, no phone records, no email records, and a very short time frame in which any sort of communication could have taken place, and you don’t adjust your likelihood of communication downwards at all, then it’s clear that you’re desperate to come to a particular conclusion and don’t want to perform any sort of update which would render it more unlikely.
I would say a lot less than here. Maybe one or two pieces of inculpatory evidence at most.
Then why are so many primary suspects and even convicts later proven to be innocent? Your estimation of the amount of evidence that it is reasonable to expect against an innocent person seems strongly contradicted given our information on false conviction rates.
By the way, can I take it you are conceding that Knox (and/or her supporters) would have had an incentive to introduce and publicize evidence that there were more traces of Guede on or about Kercher than the two I mentioned earlier?
I have stopped trying to argue that point because, in the face of a qualified expert without any professional stake in the case claiming that it is enormously unlikely for Knox and Sollecito to have left an absence of evidence if they were physically involved in the case, you insist on demanding a particular piece of evidence which I have already provided repeated and abundant explanations as to why it would be difficult for me to produce.
In fact, when I put it in words, I have to wonder I’m still arguing about any of this. Thus far you have shown a tremendous unwillingness to update in favor of any exculpatory evidence (when I think evidence from the prosecution is weak, I explain why I do not think it is much more likely if Knox and Sollecito are guilty than if they are innocent. You refuse to update on evidence entirely with an explanation of how it does not disprove all possible guilt scenarios.) You have been rude, logically rude, and I suspect you could go on arguing for Knox and Sollecito’s guilt indefinitely, increasing your confidence in your probability assignment no matter how much evidence mounts against you.
You have given me every reason to believe that if exposed to further evidence against your position, you will refuse to change your assessment at all. This simply isn’t worth my time.
If brazil84 weren’t a lawyer, I would have written this debate off as pointless a long time ago. It’s raising a negative affect around all the time I spend on this site, but simply walking away knowing that he’s going to continue practicing law without realizing that he’s been making some big mistakes of judgment that demand commensurately big corrections has up till this point been even more frustrating.
As a lawyer, I feel obligated to defend the profession a little. Lawyers exist to maximize the utility of the client. But a lawyer who has no grip on what is true cannot tell the client when it makes sense to throw in the towel. And that lack of judgment is not rewarded.
That said, lawyers are relatively well trained in behavior that is orthogonal to truth but correlated with winning. But for the most part, the legal system (i.e. the judge) is trying to determine truth within the limits of its empirical system.
Well said. But note that the behavior is not entirely orthogonal to truth-seeking. Being trained to discuss a dispute through the techniques of debating will surely decrease one’s ability to say “oops”. (not in the sense of it being a necessary decrease, but in the sense of it being a tendency to decrease such that my prior reduced confidence is justified)
This is actually something I struggle with, being trained as a polemic philosopher.
You, on the other hand, while asserting that the prosecution’s arguments collectively deserve high weight
You are talking about the evidence, right?
In response to requests for a defense of such, you’ve told me it’s not your job to do my homework.
In response to your request regarding the phone call, yes. The issue there is not that you have considered the argument on this point and rejected it; the issue is that you are completely unaware of the significance of the forgotten phone call. I identified the phone call merely as an example of the body of evidence against Knox.
Only if you assign zero weight to the evidence rendering conspiracy between them unlikely.
Well, assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
But when you have no evidence of private meeting, no phone records, no email records, and a very short time frame in which any sort of communication could have taken place, and you don’t adjust your likelihood of communication downwards at all,
Are you saying that I have done so?
Then why are so many primary suspects and even convicts later proven to be innocent?
I dispute that “so many” primary suspects and even convicts are later proven to be innocent. How often do you think this happens? What is the percentage of convicts who are later completely exonerated? Surely it is far less than 10% and I have allowed a 10% chance that Knox and Sollecito are innocent.
In fact, when I put it in words, I have to wonder I’m still arguing about any of this. Thus far you have shown a tremendous unwillingness to update in favor of any exculpatory evidence
The only exculpatory evidence you have offered (which I have not already considered) is based on your non-expert opinion. I have patiently explained to you the effect it would have on my probability estimate if you were able to document your opinion.
Or is there some other piece of exculpatory evidence you think I am not considering in my probability estimate?
you insist on demanding a particular piece of evidence
Look, you are the one who is proposing that additional traces of Guede on Kercher would not have made it into the public record. I am asking for you to back up that claim.
Seriously, if you want to continue this debate, show me some evidence that you will actually update in the face of more evidence against your position. In the beginning of this debate, you said that you were aware that the DNA evidence against Knox and Sollecito had been challenged. In the face of the independent experts’ report indicating that there is no valid DNA evidence against them, and Moore’s expert claims for all the evidence we should expect to see in the case of the sort of involvement alleged by the prosecution that we do not see, you update your probability by… nothing. You say you would update your probability were I to provide the right references, but when I offer to make the effort to obtain those references in exchange for a comparable effort on your behalf to produce evidence for your position (I offered you to substitute evidence for any of your assertions if you suggested the substitute first and I agreed that it was appropriate,) you evade. Why should I think this conversation is worth my time? You’ve given me every reason think that if I go to further efforts, you’ll just find more excuses not to update.
Why should I think this conversation is worth my time? You’ve given me every reason think that if I go to further efforts, you’ll just find more excuses not to update.
Seriously, if you want to continue this debate, show me some evidence that you will actually update in the face of more evidence against your position
I already conceded that my probability estimate would drop from roughly 90% to roughly 30% if you could substantiate your claim about transfer of DNA traces.
But anyway, I am not particularly interested in debating Knox’s actual innocence with you given your ignorance of the case against Knox.
In the face of the independent experts’ report indicating that there is no valid DNA evidence against them
That’s not what the independent expert report said, as far as I know.
but when I offer to make the effort to obtain those references in exchange for a comparable effort on your behalf to produce evidence for your position (I offered you to substitute evidence for any of your assertions if you suggested the substitute first and I agreed that it was appropriate,) you evade
Nonsense, you are the one who is evading; since it’s not even clear that you dispute my “position” on the point and you refuse to clarify your position. You demanded evidence for a strawman position you set up.
I will ask you one last time, if you evade or ignore we are done:
Assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
ETA:
Why should I think this conversation is worth my time?
I don’t know, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?
I don’t want to get sucked in by replying to more of brazil84′s comments, but in the spirit of this quote (edit, link fixed,) in case it will help me to do better in future...
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue.
Did it look to anyone else like I was bobbing and weaving with my responses to these questions? My perception was that I answered these questions in a straightforward way, but I may have been suffering from illusions of transparency.
You definitely got somewhat sucked into “debate mode”, and you often had far too many points lobbed at you to have caught all of them. It would seem to be possible for brazil84 to honestly have thought you were evading something, but I don’t think an outside observer should have thought so.
That you seem to have kept your cool throughout this ridiculous exercise is a credit.
We are done. You’ve given me no more reason to think there’s any point in having a conversation with you.
Ok bye.
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue. Because he knew deep down that there is no basis to think that this ratio is wildly lopsided. And if the ratio is not lopsided, then it’s perfectly reasonable to go from 90% to 30%.
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents. Neither LW nor Wikipedia are likely to be representative.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have. Debate is for changing people’s minds. Debate for its own sake is pointless (aka—I don’t debate Flat-Earthers).
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
Actually, I’ve done that before. It helps a surprisingly large amount in getting one to realize how astronomy can easily pay rent. And it really tests how well one understands how much historical scientists did really careful, clever observations. That said, I can’t plausibly argue that this is a good use of one’s time, merely that is probably marginally better use than say playing Farmville.
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
The second part is incorrect—I am open to changing my mind. As far as the first goes, I don’t know where you are at in terms of insight so I couldn’t say.
ETA:
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
On this he is clearly correct.
In any case I don’t think this particular comment deserved to be as down voted as it was.
I dispute that “so many” primary suspects and even convicts are later proven to be innocent. How often do you think this happens? What is the percentage of convicts who are later completely exonerated? Surely it is far less than 10% and I have allowed a 10% chance that Knox and Sollecito are innocent.
First of all, just because they aren’t completely exonerated does not mean they are not innocent. A better question is what the percentage chance of innocence is.
Second of all, this assumes that letting a guilty person go free and sending an innocent person to get punished is of equal weight, which it is not.
As I said to JoshuaZ, the main point of that passage was that you are ignorant of the case against Knox. Which you do not seem to deny anymore.
Not all communications result in a phone or other record. Particularly if some of those communications are between drug users and elements of the criminal underworld.
Ok, then it was reasonable for me to go from 90% to 30%. Unless you think there is an error in my math?
I would say a lot less than here. Maybe one or two pieces of inculpatory evidence at most.
By the way, can I take it you are conceding that Knox (and/or her supporters) would have had an incentive to introduce and publicize evidence that there were more traces of Guede on or about Kercher than the two I mentioned earlier?
I do deny this. You accuse me of not defending my claim that Knox’s mannerisms are among the strongest evidence against her. I have defended at several points my reasons for assigning very low weight to pieces of evidence put forward by the prosecution. You, on the other hand, while asserting that the prosecution’s arguments collectively deserve high weight, have not defended your reasons for assigning high weight to any of them. In response to requests for a defense of such, you’ve told me it’s not your job to do my homework.
Only if you assign zero weight to the evidence rendering conspiracy between them unlikely.
Not all communications require physical meeting or result in a phone record. But when you have no evidence of private meeting, no phone records, no email records, and a very short time frame in which any sort of communication could have taken place, and you don’t adjust your likelihood of communication downwards at all, then it’s clear that you’re desperate to come to a particular conclusion and don’t want to perform any sort of update which would render it more unlikely.
Then why are so many primary suspects and even convicts later proven to be innocent? Your estimation of the amount of evidence that it is reasonable to expect against an innocent person seems strongly contradicted given our information on false conviction rates.
I have stopped trying to argue that point because, in the face of a qualified expert without any professional stake in the case claiming that it is enormously unlikely for Knox and Sollecito to have left an absence of evidence if they were physically involved in the case, you insist on demanding a particular piece of evidence which I have already provided repeated and abundant explanations as to why it would be difficult for me to produce.
In fact, when I put it in words, I have to wonder I’m still arguing about any of this. Thus far you have shown a tremendous unwillingness to update in favor of any exculpatory evidence (when I think evidence from the prosecution is weak, I explain why I do not think it is much more likely if Knox and Sollecito are guilty than if they are innocent. You refuse to update on evidence entirely with an explanation of how it does not disprove all possible guilt scenarios.) You have been rude, logically rude, and I suspect you could go on arguing for Knox and Sollecito’s guilt indefinitely, increasing your confidence in your probability assignment no matter how much evidence mounts against you.
You have given me every reason to believe that if exposed to further evidence against your position, you will refuse to change your assessment at all. This simply isn’t worth my time.
Indeed, for some time I’ve been tempted to caution you against feeding the trolls.
If brazil84 weren’t a lawyer, I would have written this debate off as pointless a long time ago. It’s raising a negative affect around all the time I spend on this site, but simply walking away knowing that he’s going to continue practicing law without realizing that he’s been making some big mistakes of judgment that demand commensurately big corrections has up till this point been even more frustrating.
Then I commend you for your efforts.
brazil84 being a lawyer, though, reduces my confidence that this will pay off. That is a person optimized for debating rather than truth-seeking.
As a lawyer, I feel obligated to defend the profession a little. Lawyers exist to maximize the utility of the client. But a lawyer who has no grip on what is true cannot tell the client when it makes sense to throw in the towel. And that lack of judgment is not rewarded.
That said, lawyers are relatively well trained in behavior that is orthogonal to truth but correlated with winning. But for the most part, the legal system (i.e. the judge) is trying to determine truth within the limits of its empirical system.
Well said. But note that the behavior is not entirely orthogonal to truth-seeking. Being trained to discuss a dispute through the techniques of debating will surely decrease one’s ability to say “oops”. (not in the sense of it being a necessary decrease, but in the sense of it being a tendency to decrease such that my prior reduced confidence is justified)
This is actually something I struggle with, being trained as a polemic philosopher.
You are talking about the evidence, right?
In response to your request regarding the phone call, yes. The issue there is not that you have considered the argument on this point and rejected it; the issue is that you are completely unaware of the significance of the forgotten phone call. I identified the phone call merely as an example of the body of evidence against Knox.
Well, assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
Are you saying that I have done so?
I dispute that “so many” primary suspects and even convicts are later proven to be innocent. How often do you think this happens? What is the percentage of convicts who are later completely exonerated? Surely it is far less than 10% and I have allowed a 10% chance that Knox and Sollecito are innocent.
The only exculpatory evidence you have offered (which I have not already considered) is based on your non-expert opinion. I have patiently explained to you the effect it would have on my probability estimate if you were able to document your opinion.
Or is there some other piece of exculpatory evidence you think I am not considering in my probability estimate?
Look, you are the one who is proposing that additional traces of Guede on Kercher would not have made it into the public record. I am asking for you to back up that claim.
Seriously, if you want to continue this debate, show me some evidence that you will actually update in the face of more evidence against your position. In the beginning of this debate, you said that you were aware that the DNA evidence against Knox and Sollecito had been challenged. In the face of the independent experts’ report indicating that there is no valid DNA evidence against them, and Moore’s expert claims for all the evidence we should expect to see in the case of the sort of involvement alleged by the prosecution that we do not see, you update your probability by… nothing. You say you would update your probability were I to provide the right references, but when I offer to make the effort to obtain those references in exchange for a comparable effort on your behalf to produce evidence for your position (I offered you to substitute evidence for any of your assertions if you suggested the substitute first and I agreed that it was appropriate,) you evade. Why should I think this conversation is worth my time? You’ve given me every reason think that if I go to further efforts, you’ll just find more excuses not to update.
You two agree on something!
I already conceded that my probability estimate would drop from roughly 90% to roughly 30% if you could substantiate your claim about transfer of DNA traces.
But anyway, I am not particularly interested in debating Knox’s actual innocence with you given your ignorance of the case against Knox.
That’s not what the independent expert report said, as far as I know.
Nonsense, you are the one who is evading; since it’s not even clear that you dispute my “position” on the point and you refuse to clarify your position. You demanded evidence for a strawman position you set up.
I will ask you one last time, if you evade or ignore we are done:
Assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
ETA:
I don’t know, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?
We are done. You’ve given me no more reason to think there’s any point in having a conversation with you.
I don’t want to get sucked in by replying to more of brazil84′s comments, but in the spirit of this quote (edit, link fixed,) in case it will help me to do better in future...
Did it look to anyone else like I was bobbing and weaving with my responses to these questions? My perception was that I answered these questions in a straightforward way, but I may have been suffering from illusions of transparency.
You definitely got somewhat sucked into “debate mode”, and you often had far too many points lobbed at you to have caught all of them. It would seem to be possible for brazil84 to honestly have thought you were evading something, but I don’t think an outside observer should have thought so.
That you seem to have kept your cool throughout this ridiculous exercise is a credit.
You might want to check the link. EDIT: works now.
On the substance, all I can say is dayenu.
No. You’re fine. That’s just how brazil argues.
Ok bye.
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue. Because he knew deep down that there is no basis to think that this ratio is wildly lopsided. And if the ratio is not lopsided, then it’s perfectly reasonable to go from 90% to 30%.
What exactly are you trying to accomplish?
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
What about you?
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents. Neither LW nor Wikipedia are likely to be representative.
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have. Debate is for changing people’s minds. Debate for its own sake is pointless (aka—I don’t debate Flat-Earthers).
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
Actually, I’ve done that before. It helps a surprisingly large amount in getting one to realize how astronomy can easily pay rent. And it really tests how well one understands how much historical scientists did really careful, clever observations. That said, I can’t plausibly argue that this is a good use of one’s time, merely that is probably marginally better use than say playing Farmville.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
The second part is incorrect—I am open to changing my mind. As far as the first goes, I don’t know where you are at in terms of insight so I couldn’t say.
ETA:
Agree denotatively but disagree connotatively.
On this he is clearly correct.
In any case I don’t think this particular comment deserved to be as down voted as it was.
First of all, just because they aren’t completely exonerated does not mean they are not innocent. A better question is what the percentage chance of innocence is.
Second of all, this assumes that letting a guilty person go free and sending an innocent person to get punished is of equal weight, which it is not.
The discussion is about the probability of actual guilt, not the expected utility of punishment, so that’s not relevant.
ETA: Relatedly, I’ve commented elsewhere that a 90% probability of guilt for murder should be well within the “not guilty” verdict range.
Oh right, good point.