Seriously, if you want to continue this debate, show me some evidence that you will actually update in the face of more evidence against your position
I already conceded that my probability estimate would drop from roughly 90% to roughly 30% if you could substantiate your claim about transfer of DNA traces.
But anyway, I am not particularly interested in debating Knox’s actual innocence with you given your ignorance of the case against Knox.
In the face of the independent experts’ report indicating that there is no valid DNA evidence against them
That’s not what the independent expert report said, as far as I know.
but when I offer to make the effort to obtain those references in exchange for a comparable effort on your behalf to produce evidence for your position (I offered you to substitute evidence for any of your assertions if you suggested the substitute first and I agreed that it was appropriate,) you evade
Nonsense, you are the one who is evading; since it’s not even clear that you dispute my “position” on the point and you refuse to clarify your position. You demanded evidence for a strawman position you set up.
I will ask you one last time, if you evade or ignore we are done:
Assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
ETA:
Why should I think this conversation is worth my time?
I don’t know, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?
I don’t want to get sucked in by replying to more of brazil84′s comments, but in the spirit of this quote (edit, link fixed,) in case it will help me to do better in future...
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue.
Did it look to anyone else like I was bobbing and weaving with my responses to these questions? My perception was that I answered these questions in a straightforward way, but I may have been suffering from illusions of transparency.
You definitely got somewhat sucked into “debate mode”, and you often had far too many points lobbed at you to have caught all of them. It would seem to be possible for brazil84 to honestly have thought you were evading something, but I don’t think an outside observer should have thought so.
That you seem to have kept your cool throughout this ridiculous exercise is a credit.
We are done. You’ve given me no more reason to think there’s any point in having a conversation with you.
Ok bye.
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue. Because he knew deep down that there is no basis to think that this ratio is wildly lopsided. And if the ratio is not lopsided, then it’s perfectly reasonable to go from 90% to 30%.
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents. Neither LW nor Wikipedia are likely to be representative.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have. Debate is for changing people’s minds. Debate for its own sake is pointless (aka—I don’t debate Flat-Earthers).
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
Actually, I’ve done that before. It helps a surprisingly large amount in getting one to realize how astronomy can easily pay rent. And it really tests how well one understands how much historical scientists did really careful, clever observations. That said, I can’t plausibly argue that this is a good use of one’s time, merely that is probably marginally better use than say playing Farmville.
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
The second part is incorrect—I am open to changing my mind. As far as the first goes, I don’t know where you are at in terms of insight so I couldn’t say.
ETA:
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
On this he is clearly correct.
In any case I don’t think this particular comment deserved to be as down voted as it was.
I already conceded that my probability estimate would drop from roughly 90% to roughly 30% if you could substantiate your claim about transfer of DNA traces.
But anyway, I am not particularly interested in debating Knox’s actual innocence with you given your ignorance of the case against Knox.
That’s not what the independent expert report said, as far as I know.
Nonsense, you are the one who is evading; since it’s not even clear that you dispute my “position” on the point and you refuse to clarify your position. You demanded evidence for a strawman position you set up.
I will ask you one last time, if you evade or ignore we are done:
Assuming for the sake of argument that (1) Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder; and (2) there was absolutely no conspiracy as you have defined that term, are you saying that your a priori probability estimate of physical involvement by Knox and Sollecito is 1000 times higher than no physical involvement?
If not 1000, then what?
ETA:
I don’t know, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?
We are done. You’ve given me no more reason to think there’s any point in having a conversation with you.
I don’t want to get sucked in by replying to more of brazil84′s comments, but in the spirit of this quote (edit, link fixed,) in case it will help me to do better in future...
Did it look to anyone else like I was bobbing and weaving with my responses to these questions? My perception was that I answered these questions in a straightforward way, but I may have been suffering from illusions of transparency.
You definitely got somewhat sucked into “debate mode”, and you often had far too many points lobbed at you to have caught all of them. It would seem to be possible for brazil84 to honestly have thought you were evading something, but I don’t think an outside observer should have thought so.
That you seem to have kept your cool throughout this ridiculous exercise is a credit.
You might want to check the link. EDIT: works now.
On the substance, all I can say is dayenu.
No. You’re fine. That’s just how brazil argues.
Ok bye.
By the way, if any lurkers are reading this, I will point out the fatal flaw in Desrtopa’s reasoning on the 90% to 30% issue. See, the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder but not physically is quite low. But the prior probability of Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder physically is also low. What matters for my calculation is the ratio of the two probabilities.
I suspect that’s why Desrtopa had to bob and weave with my questions on this issue. Because he knew deep down that there is no basis to think that this ratio is wildly lopsided. And if the ratio is not lopsided, then it’s perfectly reasonable to go from 90% to 30%.
What exactly are you trying to accomplish?
I enjoy debating and I am fascinated by situations where the popular view is wrong. Also, I like debating where there isn’t anything important at stake.
Once in a while I learn something from debating with someone who disagrees with me.
What about you?
I strongly suspect that you are incorrect about which side of this debate has more adherents. Neither LW nor Wikipedia are likely to be representative.
I hope to learn something in every discussion I have. Debate is for changing people’s minds. Debate for its own sake is pointless (aka—I don’t debate Flat-Earthers).
You don’t seem interested in saying something that I can glean insight from, and you don’t seem open to changing your mind.
Actually, I’ve done that before. It helps a surprisingly large amount in getting one to realize how astronomy can easily pay rent. And it really tests how well one understands how much historical scientists did really careful, clever observations. That said, I can’t plausibly argue that this is a good use of one’s time, merely that is probably marginally better use than say playing Farmville.
On this discussion board, the popular view seems to be that Knox is most likely innocent. I make no claims about what is believed in the world in general.
The second part is incorrect—I am open to changing my mind. As far as the first goes, I don’t know where you are at in terms of insight so I couldn’t say.
ETA:
Agree denotatively but disagree connotatively.
On this he is clearly correct.
In any case I don’t think this particular comment deserved to be as down voted as it was.