For some things (like survival across repeated trials), 99.99% is indeed immensely better than 99%. There are quite a few types of scenario where intelligence does make that sort of difference. Also, 0.1% vs 10% can also make a huge difference, e.g. in the odds of successfully creating something very much more valuable than usual.
Similar odds ratios also get you from 1% to 99%, which I think is extremely valuable in almost all situations where one outcome is substantially better than the other.
The original inquiry was about returns on cognitive performance. One source of return is the sort of thing you’re talking about here: moving from 99.9999% to 99.999999% accuracy.
A different, but overall much more valuable source of return is increasing the scope of things for which you move from 1% to 99%. It’s much more valuable because for any practically possible level of cognitive capability, there are a lot more things at the low end of predictability than at the high end.
If you want to restrict the discussion only to the first class though, that’s fine.
For some things (like survival across repeated trials), 99.99% is indeed immensely better than 99%. There are quite a few types of scenario where intelligence does make that sort of difference. Also, 0.1% vs 10% can also make a huge difference, e.g. in the odds of successfully creating something very much more valuable than usual.
Similar odds ratios also get you from 1% to 99%, which I think is extremely valuable in almost all situations where one outcome is substantially better than the other.
The inquiry is about sustained linear returns to increases in predictive accuracy.
It’s not enough to show that a jump from 99% predictive accuracy to 99.99% is good.
You have to show that a jump from 99% accuracy to 99.99% is as good as a jump from 99.99% to 99.9999% accuracy.
You aren’t properly engaging with the inquiry I posited.
The original inquiry was about returns on cognitive performance. One source of return is the sort of thing you’re talking about here: moving from 99.9999% to 99.999999% accuracy.
A different, but overall much more valuable source of return is increasing the scope of things for which you move from 1% to 99%. It’s much more valuable because for any practically possible level of cognitive capability, there are a lot more things at the low end of predictability than at the high end.
If you want to restrict the discussion only to the first class though, that’s fine.